000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132148
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Nov 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 
10N86W to 12N90W to 10N93W. The ITCZ continues from 10N93W to
13N105W to 09N117W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is 
evident across the Panama and Costa Rica offshore waters, from 
09N to 15N between 105W and 120W, and from 06N to 12N W of 131W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A strong gap winds is occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 
associated with a cool, dry airmass moving across the 
southwestern Gulf of Mexico and across the Tehuantepec isthmus. 
Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient across the region is 
supporting gentle to moderate NW to N winds across the region. 
Moderate wave heights are observed across the region, predominantly
in NW swell north of 20N and SW swell south of 20N.

For the forecast, the plume of strong to near-gale force gap winds
will expand across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with building seas, 
through tonight or early Mon. Winds and seas will diminish 
through Mon afternoon. Looking ahead, another round of gap winds 
can be expected by the middle of the week, possibly reaching gale
force by Thu night. Elsewhere, winds will increase to fresh in 
the Baja California Norte offshore waters and northern Gulf of 
California waters Sun evening and diminish to gentle to moderate 
speeds on Mon. Wave heights will reach 8 to 9 ft off Baja 
California Norte later today and tonight, mainly due to NW swell.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate S to SW winds along with slight to moderate 
wave heights in SW swell persist across most of the region.
Scattered heavy showers are active in the Gulf of Panama. 

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh easterly NE to E 
winds will develop in the Papagayo region tonight and continue 
through the middle of the week. Little change is expected 
elsewhere, with gentle to moderate southerly winds persisting  
south of the monsoon trough through the forecast period along 
with slight to moderate seas. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Broad surface ridging persists north of 15N, supporting moderate
to fresh trade winds from 10N to 20N west of 120W, with mostly 5
to 7 ft wave heights. Pockets seas to 8 ft remain south of the 
ITCZ west of 130W. This is mostly likely due to a mix of NW 
swell with southerly cross-equatorial swell. East of 120W a few 
small low pressure areas are analyzed along the monsoon trough. 

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds will 
prevail into at least midweek across most of the basin. Decaying 
swell will gradually subside below 8 ft by Mon. The next set of 
long-period NW swell and fresh winds is moving into the far 
northwest part of the discussion area and will persist through 
midweek. 

$$
Ramos