000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130821
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Nov 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 
12N86W to 13N100W to 08N125W. The ITCZ continues from 08N125W to
07N130W and beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is 
evident from 11N to 13N between 100W and 105W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated the onset of
strong gap winds entering the Gulf of Tehuantepec, associated
with a cool, dry airmass moving across the southwestern Gulf of 
Mexico and across the Tehuantepec isthmus. Elsewhere, a weak 
pressure gradient across the region is supporting gentle to 
moderate NW to N winds across the region. Moderate wave heights 
are observed across the region, predominantly in NW swell north 
of 20N and SW swell south of 20N.

For the forecast, the plume of strong to near-gale force gap winds
will expand across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with building seas, 
through tonight or early Mon. Winds and seas will diminish 
through Mon afternoon. Looking ahead, another round of gap winds 
can be expected by the middle of the week, possibly reaching gale
force by Thu night. Elsewhere, winds will increase to fresh in 
the Baja California Norte offshore waters and northern Gulf of 
California waters Sun evening and diminish to gentle to moderate 
speeds on Mon. Wave heights will reach 8 to 9 ft off Baja 
California Norte later today and tonight, mainly due to NW swell.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate S to SW winds along with moderate wave heights
in SW swell persist across most of the region. A few showers are
active in the Gulf of Panama. Land-breeze driven shower are 
moving across the coastal plains of Costa Rica and western Panama
toward the adjacent offshore waters. 

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh easterly NE to E 
winds will develop in the Papagayo region tonight and continue 
through the middle of the week. Little change is expected 
elsewhere, with gentle to moderate southerly winds will persist 
south of the monsoon trough through the forecast period along 
with slight to moderate seas. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Broad ridging will persist north of 15N, supporting moderate to 
fresh trade winds from 10N to 20N west of 115W, with mostly 5 to 
7 ft wave heights. A series of earlier altimeter satellite passes
also showed pockets seas to 8 ft seas south of the ITCZ/monsoon 
trough west of 105W. This is mostly likely due to a mix of NW 
swell with southerly cross-equatorial swell. East of 110W a few 
small low pressure areas are analyzed along the monsoon trough. 

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds will 
prevail into at least midweek across most of the basin. Decaying 
swell will gradually subside below 8 ft by Mon. The next set of 
long- period NW swell and fresh winds are expected to move into 
the far northwest part of the discussion area early Sun and 
persist through midweek. 

$$
Christensen