000 AXPZ20 KNHC 122159 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Nov 12 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2150 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N86W to 12N103W to 08N117W. The ITCZ stretches from 08N176W to 06N130W and beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is evident on satellite imagery across the Colombia and Panama offshore waters and from 09N to 14N between 98W and 118W, and from 07N to 11N W of 137W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Surface ridging extending SE from a 1025 mb high near 31N131W covers the Baja California peninsula offshore waters where a weak pressure gradient continues to support light to gentle NW winds with seas in the 3 to 5 ft range. High pressure in the Great Basin has shifted slightly NE, which has allowed the NW winds in the Gulf of California to remain in the gentle to moderate speeds with seas to 3 ft. Elsewhere in the offshore waters of Mexico, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light to gentle variable winds and seas of 3-5 ft prevail. For the forecast, building high pressure behind a cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico will lead to a gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region tonight through Mon morning. Strong to near gale force speed expected tonight, which will begin to diminish to fresh to strong Sun night and to moderate to fresh Mon morning. Seas are expected to build to 9 ft during the period of strongest winds tonight and Sun. A second gap winds is forecast to begin Tue night and briefly diminish on Thu before a third stronger gap wind event starting Thu night. Elsewhere, winds will increase to fresh in the Baja California Norte offshore waters and northern Gulf of California waters Sun evening and diminish to gentle to moderate speeds on Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Showers and isolated thunderstorms remain across the Colombia and Panama offshore waters. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail south of the monsoon trough or between 02N and 10N. Light to gentle winds are in the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters as well as elsewhere across the offshore waters from Nicaragua to Guatemala. Seas N of the monsoon trough are in the 3 to 5 ft range and in the 3 to 4 ft between Ecuador and Galapagos. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh easterly NE to E winds will develop in the Papagayo region Sun night and continue through Thu. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate southerly winds will persist south of the monsoon trough to 02N through the forecast period along with slight to moderate seas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1022 mb high pressure system is centered near 30N129W and extends southward to 20N. The pressure gradient between the subtropical high and the monsoon trough and ITCZ sustain moderate to locally fresh easterly winds from 08N to 20N and west of 120W. Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft. South of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and seas of 6-8 ft are prevalent. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds will prevail into at least midweek across most of the basin. Decaying swell currently in the central to western waters will gradually subside below 8 ft by Mon. The next set of long-period NW swell and fresh winds are expected to move into the far northwest part of the discussion area early Sun and persist through midweek. $$ Ramos