000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122150
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Nov 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 
10N86W to 12N103W to 08N117W. The ITCZ stretches from 08N176W to
06N130W and beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is 
evident on satellite imagery across the Colombia and Panama 
offshore waters and from 09N to 14N between 98W and 118W, and 
from 07N to 11N W of 137W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging extending SE from a 1025 mb high near 31N131W 
covers the Baja California peninsula offshore waters where a weak
pressure gradient continues to support light to gentle NW winds with
seas in the 3 to 5 ft range. High pressure in the Great Basin 
has shifted slightly NE, which has allowed the NW winds in the 
Gulf of California to remain in the gentle to moderate speeds 
with seas to 3 ft. Elsewhere in the offshore waters of Mexico, 
including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light to gentle variable winds
and seas of 3-5 ft prevail.

For the forecast, building high pressure behind a cold front 
moving across the Gulf of Mexico will lead to a gap wind event in
the Tehuantepec region tonight through Mon morning. Strong to 
near gale force speed expected tonight, which will begin to
diminish to fresh to strong Sun night and to moderate to fresh
Mon morning. Seas are expected to build to 9 ft during the 
period of strongest winds tonight and Sun. A second gap winds is
forecast to begin Tue night and briefly diminish on Thu before a
third stronger gap wind event starting Thu night. Elsewhere, 
winds will increase to fresh in the Baja California Norte 
offshore waters and northern Gulf of California waters Sun
evening and diminish to gentle to moderate speeds on Mon.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A few showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across the 
Colombia and Panama offshore waters. Gentle to moderate 
southerly winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail south of the monsoon 
trough or S of 10N, including the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands
offshore waters. Light to gentle variable winds and 3-5 ft seas 
are elsewhere across the offshore waters from Nicaragua to
Guatemala.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds
will develop in the Papagayo region Sun night and continue 
through late next week. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate southerly 
winds will persist south of the monsoon trough through most of 
the forecast period. Seas will remain moderate. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1022 mb high pressure system is centered near 30N129W and 
extends southward to 20N. The pressure gradient between the 
subtropical high and the monsoon trough and ITCZ sustain moderate
to locally fresh easterly winds from 08N to 20N and west of 
120W. Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft. South of the monsoon 
trough and ITCZ, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and 
seas of 6-8 ft are prevalent. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds will 
prevail into at least midweek across most of the basin. Decaying
swell currently in the central to western waters will gradually 
subside below 8 ft by Mon. The next set of long-period NW swell 
and fresh winds are expected to move into the far northwest part 
of the discussion area early Sun and persist through midweek. 

$$
Ramos