000 AXPZ20 KNHC 121543 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Nov 12 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1550 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N86W to 12N100W to a 1009 mb low pres near 11N105W to 09N116W. The ITCZ stretches from 09N116W to 07N130W and beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is evident on satellite imagery across the Colombia and Panama offshore waters and from 07N to 13N between 88W and 97W, from 09N to 14N between 104W and 118W, and from 07N to 11N W of 138W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The subtropical ridge positioned near 33N132W extends weakly toward the Revillagigedo Islands. A recent scatterometer satellite pass show moderate to locally fresh NW winds in the offshore waters of Baja California. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Moderate to fresh NW winds were also depicted in the latest satellite-derived wind data in the northern Gulf of California waters and these winds also extend into the central portion of the basin. Seas in the waters described are in the 3-5 ft range. Elsewhere in the offshore waters of Mexico, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light to gentle winds and seas of 3-6 ft prevail. For the forecast, building high pressure behind the cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico will lead to a gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region tonight through Mon morning. Winds are forecast to reach strong to near gale force speed. Seas are expected to build to 9 ft during that period. Elsewhere, winds will increase to fresh in the Baja California Norte offshore waters and northern Gulf of California waters Sun through early Mon. NW swell of 5-8 ft will gradually decay and extend to Cabo San Lucas Sun through Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A few showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across NW Colombia and spill into the nearshore waters. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail south of the monsoon trough. Light to gentle winds and 3-5 ft seas are found elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds will develop in the Papagayo region Sun night and continue through late next week. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate southerly winds will persist south of the monsoon trough through most of the forecast period. Seas will remain moderate. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1024 mb high pressure system is centered near 33N132W and extends southward into the eastern tropical Pacific. A weak surface trough west of the area and divergence aloft support a few showers over the far northwest portion of the basin. The pressure gradient between the subtropical high and the monsoon trough and ITCZ sustain moderate to locally fresh easterly winds north of 08N and west of 110W. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft as captured by a recent altimeter satellite pass, with the highest seas near 11N135W. South of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and seas of 6-8 ft are prevalent. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds will prevail into at least midweek across most of the basin. Decaying swell currently in the central to western waters will gradually subside below 8 ft by Mon. The next set of long-period NW swell and fresh winds are expected to move into the far northwest part of the discussion area early Sun and persist through midweek. $$ Ramos