000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120315 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Nov 12 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0305 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of NW Nicaragua near 13N88W to 13N100W to 08N116W. The ITCZ stretches from 08N116W to 08N130W and beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 06N to 14N and between 104W and 114W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1023 mb high pressure system, located well northwest of Baja California, continues to sustain moderate to fresh NW winds in the Gulf of California, mainly in the northern and central portions of the basin. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are found in the offshore waters of Baja California, along with seas of 4-7 ft. Similar winds are also noted offshore Cabo Corrientes, with seas of 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds are in the south and SW Mexican offshore waters, including the Tehuantepec region. Seas in those areas are in the 4-5 ft range in mixed SW and NW swell. For the forecast, winds in the Gulf of California will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds by Sat afternoon. A Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is forecast to begin Sat night through Mon morning. Winds are forecast to reach strong speeds with seas building to 8 ft during that period. Low pressure will develop over southern California on Sun. Tightening pressure gradient will support moderate to fresh NW winds in the Baja California Norte offshore waters. NW swell of 5-8 ft will gradually decay and extend to Cabo San Lucas through Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are present in the Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama and NW Colombia offshore waters. This activity will diminish as the night progresses. Moderate southerly winds and seas of 3-6 ft are occurring south of the monsoon trough. Light to gentle winds and 3-5 ft seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate S to SW winds will continue S of the monsoon trough and across the offshore waters between Colombia and Costa Rica through Mon. Seas will remain moderate. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E gap winds will develop in the Papagayo region Sun night and continue through late next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The subtropical ridge north of the eastern tropical Atlantic remains the most influential factor in the weather conditions across the basin. Moderate to occasionally fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are evident north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. An altimeter satellite pass from a couple hours ago captured a large region of seas up to 8 ft from near 05N to 22N and W of 115W. South of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and seas of 6-8 ft are prevalent. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds will prevail into at least midweek across most of the basin. Decaying swell in the NE waters is forecast to diminish below 8 ft by Sat. However, seas will build up to near 8 ft in the western waters by Sun into early next week. Looking ahead, the next set of long-period NW swell and fresh winds are expected to move into the far northwest part of the discussion area Sun. $$ DELGADO