000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112205
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Nov 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Nicaragua near 
11N86W to 11N100W to 08N120W. The ITCZ stretches from 08N120W to
08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 07N to 
14N between 97W and 111W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient across the region support mainly light
to gentle NW winds along the Baja California offshore waters 
where residual 5 to 8 ft NW swell prevails. Strong high pressure
in the Great Basin, however, continue to support moderate to 
fresh NW winds along the Gulf of California where seas remain in 
the 4 to 5 ft range, highest in the northern gulf. Light to 
gentle variable winds are elsewhere in the S and SW Mexican 
offshore waters, including the Tehuantepec region. Seas in those 
areas are in the 4-5 ft range in mixed SW and NW swell. 

For the forecast, the NW swell along the Baja California 
offshore waters will subside below 8 ft tonight. Winds in the 
Gulf of California will further diminish to gentle to moderate 
speeds by Sat afternoon. The next gap wind event in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec is forecast to begin Sat night through Mon morning. 
Winds are forecast to reach strong speeds with seas building to 8
ft during that period. Low pressure will develop over southern 
California on Sun tightening the pressure gradient in the region 
and supporting moderate to fresh NW winds in the Baja California 
Norte offshore waters along with NW swell of 5 to 8 ft gradually 
decaying and extending to Cabo San Lucas through Tue. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are occurring across the 
Central America offshore waters S of the monsoon trough and
across the Ecuador, the Galapagos and Colombia offshores. Seas of
4 to 5 ft in SW swell prevail across the entire region.

For the forecast, moderate S to SW winds will continue S of the 
monsoon trough and across the offshore waters between Colombia 
and Costa Rica through Mon. Seas will remain moderate. Moderate
to locally fresh NE to E gap winds will develop in the Papagayo 
region Sun night and continue through the middle of next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure anchored by a 1025 mb high N of the area continue
to extend a ridge across the open waters W of Baja California and
N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. A weak pressure gradient is
dominating the region, which is confirmed by gentle to moderate N
to NE winds captured by recent scatterometer data. Seas are in
the 6 to 7 ft in this region. Moderate winds are south of the 
monsoon trough and ITCZ with seas to 7 ft. 

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds will 
prevail into early next week across most of the basin. Decaying 
swell in the NE waters is forecast to diminish below 8 ft by 
Sat. However, seas will build up to near 8 ft in the western
waters by Sun into early next week. Looking ahead, the next set 
of long- period NW swell and fresh winds are expected to move 
into the far northwest part of the discussion area Sun. 

$$
Ramos