000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111606 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Nov 11 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1550 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Nicaragua near 11N86W to 11N98W to 07N120W. The ITCZ stretches from 07N120W to 08N134W. A surface trough is to the W of the ITCZ near 138W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 07N to 11N between 83W and 94W, and from 08N to 12N between 101W and 111W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak pressure gradient across the region support moderate NW winds along the Baja California offshore waters where residual 5 to 8 ft NW swell prevails. Strong high pressure in the Great Basin, however, continue to support fresh to locally strong winds in the northern half of the Gulf of California where recent altimeter data show seas of 4 to 5 ft. Light to gentle variable winds with seas to 5 ft are in the Tehuantepec region while gentle to moderate NW winds prevail along the remaining SW Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, the NW swell along the Baja California offshore waters will subside below 8 ft later today. Winds in the Gulf of California will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds this afternoon and further diminish to gentle to moderate speeds by Sat afternoon. The next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is forecast to begin Sat night through Mon morning. Winds are forecast to reach strong speeds with seas building to 8 ft during that period. Low pressure will develop over southern California on Sun tightening the pressure gradient in the region and supporting moderate to fresh NW winds in the Baja California Norte offshore waters along with NW swell of 5 to 8 ft gradually decaying and extending to Cabo San Lucas through Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Mainly gentle to locally moderate S to SW winds are occurring across the Central America offshore waters as well as the Ecuador, the Galapagos and Colombia offshores. Seas to 5 ft remain across the region in SW swell. For the forecast, moderate S to SW winds will continue through Mon S of the monsoon trough and across the offshore waters between Colombia and Costa Rica along with moderate seas. Moderate NE to E gap winds will develop in the Papagayo region Sun night and continue through Tue. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure N of the area sustains moderate to fresh easterly winds north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, west of 110W. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Moderate southerly winds are south of the monsoon trough and east of 115W. Seas of 4-6 ft are occurring in these waters. In the remainder of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds will prevail into early next week across most of the basin. Decaying swell in the NE waters is forecast to diminish below 8 ft by Sat. However, seas will build up to near 8 ft in the western waters by Sun into early next week. Looking ahead, the next set of long- period NW swell and fresh winds are expected to move into the far northwest part of the discussion area Sun. $$ Ramos