000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111549
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Nov 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Nicaragua near 
11N86W to 11N98W to 07N120W. The ITCZ stretches from 07N120W to 
08N134W. A surface trough is to the W of the ITCZ near 138W. 
Scattered moderate convection is present from 07N to 11N between
83W and 94W, and from 08N to 12N between 101W and 111W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient across the region support moderate NW
winds along the Baja California offshore waters where residual 5
to 8 ft NW swell prevails. Strong high pressure in the Great
Basin, however, continue to support fresh to locally strong winds
in the northern half of the Gulf of California where recent
altimeter data show seas of 4 to 5 ft. Light to gentle variable
winds with seas to 5 ft are in the Tehuantepec region while
gentle to moderate NW winds prevail along the remaining SW Mexican
offshore waters.

For the forecast, the NW swell along the Baja California 
offshore waters will subside below 8 ft later today. Winds in the
Gulf of California will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds this
afternoon and further diminish to gentle to moderate speeds by
Sat afternoon. The next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
is forecast to begin Sat night through Mon morning. Winds are 
forecast to reach strong speeds with seas building to 8 ft during
that period. Low pressure will develop over southern California
on Sun tightening the pressure gradient in the region and
supporting moderate to fresh NW winds in the Baja California
Norte offshore waters along with NW swell of 5 to 8 ft gradually
decaying and extending to Cabo San Lucas through Tue.  

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The shower activity previously described in the offshore waters
of Panama and NW Colombia has mostly dissipated with only an
isolated shower or two in the neighborhood of 10N90W. Moderate to
occasionally fresh southerly winds are occurring between 03N and
10N and W of 85W. Similar winds are also evident within 120 nm of
the Gulf of Guayaquil. Seas in the areas described are 3-6 ft. In
the remainder of the forecast waters, light to gentle winds and 
seas of 3-5 ft are prevalent.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh SW winds will 
prevail south of the monsoon trough through early Sat, before 
diminishing to gentle to moderate speeds. Slight to moderate seas
can also be expected. Winds will increase to fresh speeds in the
Papagayo region on Mon and continue through at least midweek.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1026 mb high pressure system near 35N130W sustains moderate to
fresh easterly winds north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, west 
of 110W. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Recent scatterometer
wind data also captured moderate to locally fresh southerly 
winds south of the monsoon trough and east of 115W. Seas of 4-6 
ft are occurring in these waters. In the remainder of the basin,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds will 
prevail into early next week across most of the basin. Decaying 
swell in the NE waters is forecast to diminish below 8 ft by 
Sat. However, seas will build up to near 8 ft in the western
waters by Sun into early next week. Looking ahead, the next set 
of long- period NW swell and fresh winds are expected to move 
into the far northwest part of the discussion area Sun. 

$$
Ramos