150 
AXPZ20 KNHC 110317
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Nov 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0305 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of NW Costa Rica near 
10N86W to 12N100W to 07N120W. The ITCZ stretches from 07N120W to
09N134W. A surface trough breaks the ITCZ along 137W. Scattered 
moderate convection is observed from 05N to 09N and E of 90W, 
and from 08N to 12N and between 102W and 113W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 12N and W of
130W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A moderate pressure gradient between a strong high pressure
system near 36N130W and lower pressures over northern Mexico
sustain moderate to fresh northerly winds across the Baja
California offshore waters. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft.
Similar winds are found in the northern and central Gulf of
California, along with seas of 3-5 ft. Another region of moderate
to locally fresh NW winds is offshore SW Mexico, especially
within 120 nm of the coast. Seas in the waters described are 4-6
ft. Elsewhere in the remainder of the Mexico offshore waters,
including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moderate or weaker winds and 
slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the NW swell along the Baja California offshore
waters will subside below 8 ft on Fri morning. Fresh NW winds in
the northern Gulf of California will prevail and briefly reach 
fresh to strong speeds Fri morning through the afternoon hours 
with seas to 6 ft. The next gap wind event in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec is forecast to begin Sat night through Mon morning. 
Winds are forecast to reach strong speeds with seas building to 8
ft during that period. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A few showers are present in the offshore waters of Panama and NW
Colombia. Moderate SW winds remain across the waters south of the
monsoon trough to about 03N. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft. In
the rest of the forecast waters, light to gentle winds and seas
of 3-5 ft are prevalent.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh SW winds will 
prevail south of the monsoon trough through early Sat, before 
diminishing to gentle to moderate speeds. Slight to moderate 
seas can also be expected. Winds will increase to fresh in the 
Papagayo region beginning Mon and continue into at least 
midweek.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

An expansive subtropical ridge well north of the eastern tropical
Pacific maintains gentle to fresh easterly winds north of the
monsoon trough and ITCZ and west of 105W. Seas of 6-10 ft are 
occurring in these waters, as captured by a recent altimeter
satellite pass. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are
found south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, along with seas of
4-7 ft. In the remainder of the basin, moderate or weaker winds 
and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds will 
continue into early next week. Decaying swell will continue to
gradually diminish and seas will subside below 8 ft by Sun. Looking
ahead, the next set of long-period NW swell and fresh winds are expected
to move into the far northwest part of the discussion area Sun. 

$$
DELGADO