000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102148
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Nov 10 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Nicaragua near 
12N87W to 09N100W to 07N120W. The ITCZ stretches from 07N120W to
09N130W and then from 09N135W to beyond 08N140W. A surface 
trough breaks the ITCZ along 133W. Scattered moderate convection
is occurring from 05N to 09N E of 85W, and from 06N to 12N W of 
129W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A former weakening cold front across the central Gulf of
California and Punta Abreojos has dissipated and winds along the 
Baja California offshore waters have diminished to moderate
speeds. However, 5-8 ft NW swell prevails in this region all the
way to Cabo San Lucas. In the Gulf of California, NW winds are
still moderate to fresh N of 26N, higher winds and seas to 5 ft
happening N of 29N. Gentle to moderate NW winds are elsewhere in
the SW Mexican offshore waters with seas of 5-6 ft in mixed SW 
and NW swell. In the Tehuantepec region, winds have diminished to
variable light to gentle.

For the forecast, the NW swell following the front will 
gradually subside, diminishing below 8 ft by Fri night. A new gap
wind event with fresh to strong northerly is expected in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec early Sun into Mon.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered showers continue to affect the waters off NW Colombia,
Costa Rica and Panama where moderate to occasionally fresh SW 
winds prevail with seas to 5 ft in SW swell. Elsewhere, light to
gentle winds and seas of 3-5 ft prevail.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh SW winds will 
prevail south of the monsoon trough through early Sat, before 
diminishing late Sat. Light to gentle variable winds will persist
elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas can also be expected. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas of 8 to 9 ft are across
most of the open waters N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ and west of
116W. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are 
evident south of the monsoon trough and E of 105W. Seas are 4-6 
ft in the waters described. In the remainder of the basin, 
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the aforementioned frontal boundary will 
devolve into a trough and dissipate by Fri. Moderate to locally
fresh easterly winds will continue into early next week. 
Decaying swell will lead to subsiding seas of 8-9 ft today, with
further diminishing seas into Fri. Looking ahead, the next set 
of long-period NW swell is expected to move into the far 
northwest part of the discussion area Sun. 

$$
Ramos