000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101605
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Nov 10 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Nicaragua near 
12N87W to 10N100W to 08N120W. The ITCZ stretches from 08N120W to
08N130W and then from 08N136W to beyond 08N140W. A surface 
trough breaks the ITCZ along 132W. Scattered moderate convection
is occurring from 04N to 09N E of 86W, and from 06N to 12N W of
124W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weakening cold front extending from the central Gulf of
California SW to Punta Abreojos in the Baja California peninsula
continue to support moderate to locally fresh NW winds along the
Baja California offshore waters where recent altimeter data show
seas in the 7 to 9 ft range in NW swell. Moderate to fresh NW
winds are also in the Gulf of California with seas to 3 ft,
highest winds and seas N of 29N. A plume of fresh to strong winds
in the Tehuantepec region is decreasing to fresh winds this
morning with seas remaining in the 5-7 ft range. Gentle to
moderate NW winds are elsewhere in the SW Mexican offshore waters
with seas of 5-6 ft in mixed SW and NW swell.

For the forecast, the cold front moving across Baja California will 
continue to weaken as it slides SE and dissipate by Fri. The NW 
swell following the front will gradually subside, diminishing 
below 8 ft by Fri night. A new gap wind event with fresh to 
strong northerly is expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec early 
Sun into Mon.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered showers continue to affect the waters off NW Colombia,
Costa Rica and Panama where moderate to occasionally fresh SW 
winds prevail with seas to 5 ft in SW swell. Elsewhere, light to
gentle winds and seas of 3-5 ft prevail.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh SW winds will 
prevail south of the monsoon trough through early Sat, before 
diminishing late Sat. Light to gentle variable winds will persist
elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas can also be expected. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas of 8 to 9 ft are across
most of the open waters N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ and west of
116W. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are 
evident south of the monsoon trough and E of 105W. Seas are 4-6 
ft in the waters described. In the remainder of the basin, 
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the aforementioned frontal boundary will 
devolve into a trough and dissipate by Fri. Moderate to locally
fresh easterly winds will continue into early next week. 
Decaying swell will lead to subsiding seas of 8-9 ft today, with
further diminishing seas into Fri. Looking ahead, the next set 
of long-period NW swell is expected to move into the far 
northwest part of the discussion area Sun. 

$$
Ramos