000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101545
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Nov 10 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Nicaragua near 
12N87W to 10N100W to 08N120W. The ITCZ stretches from 08N120W to
08N130W and then from 08N136W to beyond 08N140W. A surface 
trough breaks the ITCZ along 132W. Scattered moderate convection
is occurring from 04N to 09N E of 86W, and from 06N to 12N W of
124W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weakening cold front extending from the central Gulf of
California SW to Punta Abreojos in the Baja California peninsula
continue to support moderate to locally fresh NW winds along the
Baja California offshore waters where recent altimeter data show
seas in the 7 to 9 ft range in NW swell. Moderate to fresh NW
winds are also in the Gulf of California with seas to 3 ft,
highest winds and seas N of 29N. A plume of fresh to strong winds
in the Tehuantepec region is decreasing to fresh winds this
morning with seas remaining in the 5-7 ft range. 

For the forecast, the cold front moving across Baja California will 
weaken as it slides southeastward and dissipate by Fri. The NW 
swell following the front will gradually subside, diminishing 
below 8 ft by Fri night. The fresh to strong northerly winds in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec are forecast to weaken to moderate or 
weaker by late tonight. However, another fresh to strong 
northerly wind gap event is expected in the Gulf starting early 
Sun into Mon.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered showers continue to affect the waters off Central
America and NW Colombia, especially from Costa Rica and coastal
Colombia. Moderate to occasionally fresh SW winds are found south
of the monsoon trough to 03N. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft.
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and seas of 3-5 ft prevail. The
exception is found in the waters off the Gulf of Guayaquil where
fresh southerly winds were captured by a recent scatterometer 
satellite pass.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh SW winds will 
prevail south of the monsoon trough through early Sat, before 
diminishing late Sat. Light to gentle variable winds will persist
elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas can also be expected. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front extends from northern Baja California norte to
25N121W. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are evident
across most of the eastern tropical Pacific waters, especially
north of the ITCZ and west of 115W. Seas are 7-11 ft in these
waters with the highest seas occurring N of 23N. Elsewhere, 
moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are evident south of 
the ITCZ and W of 117W and south of the monsoon trough and E of 
107W. Seas are 4-6 ft in the waters described. In the remainder 
of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the aforementioned frontal boundary will 
devolve into a trough and dissipate by Fri. Moderate to locally
fresh easterly winds will continue into early next week. 
Decaying swell will lead to subsiding seas of 8-9 ft today, with
further diminishing seas into Fri. Looking ahead, the next set 
of long-period NW swell is expected to move into the far 
northwest part of the discussion area Sun. 

$$
Ramos