000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100925
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Nov 10 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Nicaragua near 
12N87W to 09N105W to 09N120W. The ITCZ stretches from 09N120W to
09N129W and then from 10N131W to beyond 09N140W. A surface trough
breaks the ITCZ along 130W. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is occurring from 07N to 13N and between 122W 
and 135W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The weak cold front continues to push southeastward across NW
Mexico, Baja California and the offshore waters. The frontal
boundary extends from SW New Mexico to northern Baja California
Sur to near 25N118W. A recent scatterometer (ASCAT) satellite 
pass show moderate to fresh N-NW winds across the offshore waters
of Baja California, with the strongest winds occurring within 60
nm of the coast. Seas north of the cold front are 7-10 ft, with 
the highest seas occurring near 30N121W. Seas in the remainder of
the offshore waters of Baja California are 6-9 ft. Moderate to 
locally fresh northerly winds were also captured by ASCAT north 
of the cold front in the northern and central Gulf of California,
along with seas of 2-4 ft. In the rest of the Gulf, light to 
gentle NW winds and seas of 1-3 ft prevail.

Fresh to strong northerly winds are observed in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec due to a modest pressure gradient. Seas in these 
waters are 4-7 ft. Elsewhere, fresh NW winds are noted in the 
offshore waters of Jalisco, Colima and Michoacan. Seas are 4-6 
ft. In the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, moderate or 
weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the cold front moving across Baja California will 
weaken as it slides southeastward and dissipate by Fri. The NW 
swell following the front will gradually subside, diminishing 
below 8 ft by Fri night. The fresh to strong northerly winds in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec are forecast to weaken to moderate or 
weaker by late tonight. However, another fresh to strong 
northerly wind gap event is expected in the Gulf starting early 
Sun into Mon.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered showers continue to affect the waters off Central
America and NW Colombia, especially from Costa Rica and coastal
Colombia. Moderate to occasionally fresh SW winds are found south
of the monsoon trough to 03N. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft.
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and seas of 3-5 ft prevail. The
exception is found in the waters off the Gulf of Guayaquil where
fresh southerly winds were captured by a recent scatterometer 
satellite pass.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh SW winds will 
prevail south of the monsoon trough through early Sat, before 
diminishing late Sat. Light to gentle variable winds will persist
elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas can also be expected. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front extends from northern Baja California norte to
25N121W. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are evident
across most of the eastern tropical Pacific waters, especially
north of the ITCZ and west of 115W. Seas are 7-11 ft in these
waters with the highest seas occurring N of 23N. Elsewhere, 
moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are evident south of 
the ITCZ and W of 117W and south of the monsoon trough and E of 
107W. Seas are 4-6 ft in the waters described. In the remainder 
of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the aforementioned frontal boundary will 
devolve into a trough and dissipate by Fri. Moderate to locally
fresh easterly winds will continue into early next week. 
Decaying swell will lead to subsiding seas of 8-9 ft today, with
further diminishing seas into Fri. Looking ahead, the next set 
of long-period NW swell is expected to move into the far 
northwest part of the discussion area Sun. 

$$
DELGADO