000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100329
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Nov 10 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of SW Nicaragua near
11N86W to 11N100W to 09N117W. The ITCZ stretches from 09N117W to
11N128W to 09N140W and beyond. Scattered moderate convection is 
observed from 08N to 14N and between 95W and 110W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 13N
and between 125W and 137W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front extends from southern Arizona to well offshore Punta
Eugenia near 26N119W. Moderate to fresh N-NW winds are found
across the offshore waters of Baja California, with the strongest
winds occurring within 60 nm of the coast. Seas north of the cold
front are 8-11 ft, with the highest seas occurring near 30N121W.
Seas in the remainder of the offshore waters of Baja California
are 6-9 ft. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are noted
north of the cold front in the northern Gulf of California, along
with seas of 1-3 ft. In the rest of the Gulf, light to gentle
NW winds and seas of 1-3 ft prevail.

Fresh to strong northerly winds are evident in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec due to a modest pressure gradient. Seas in these
waters are 4-7 ft. Elsewhere, fresh NW winds are present in the 
offshore waters of Jalisco, Colima and Michoacan. Seas are 4-6 
ft. In the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the cold front moving across Baja California will
weaken as it slides southeastward and dissipate by Thu night. 
The NW swell following in the wake of this front will continue to
build seas over the Baja California offshore waters through Thu.
Seas up to 9 ft will reach as far south as the Cabo San Lucas 
offshore waters Thu and Thu night. Winds ahead of the cold front 
will diminish, but moderate to fresh NW winds will develop 
southward behind it. These winds will prevail through the Gulf of
California through early Sat. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A few showers are noted south of Panama and west of Colombia
associated with inland storms over southern Central America and 
NW Colombia. Moderate southerly winds are occurring in the 
offshore waters of Costa Rica to Colombia from 03N to 10N, along 
with seas of 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and seas of
3-5 ft prevail.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh SW winds will 
prevail south of the monsoon trough into the weekend, before
diminishing late Sat. Light to gentle variable winds will 
persist elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas can also be expected. 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue into Thu 
offshore Guatemala southeastward to the coast of Panama. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak cold front extends from near Punta Eugenia, Baja
California Sur to near 25N120W, where it transitions into a
stationary front to 23N125W. Moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds
are found behind the frontal boundary and seas of 8-11 ft. The
highest seas are occurring near 29N125W. Moderate to fresh
easterly trade winds are noted from the ITCZ to 23N and west of
115W. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate to
fresh southerly winds are evident south of the ITCZ and W of 117W
and south of the monsoon trough and E of 107W. Seas are 4-6 ft in
the waters described. In the remainder of the basin, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the aforementioned frontal boundary will 
devolve into a trough and dissipate by Thu night. Winds in the 
wake of the front will diminish to gentle to moderate N of the 
monsoon trough and ITCZ. Decaying swell will lead subsiding seas 
of 8-9 ft Thu, with further diminishing seas into Fri. Looking 
ahead, the next set of long-period NW swell is expected to move 
into the far northwest part of the discussion area Sun. 

$$
DELGADO