000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092019
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Nov 9 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Costa Rica near 
10N86W to 10N100W and 10N117W. The ITCZ extends from 10N117W to 
10N130W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 08N to 12N between 105W and 120W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front extends from the northern Gulf of California to
25N125W. Fresh SW winds are occurring ahead of the front in the
central gulf, with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Moderate to fresh N winds
have developed behind the front in the northern Gulf of
California and offshore Baja California Norte. Ahead of the
front, moderate to fresh winds NW winds are occurring nearshore
Baja California Sur and Cabo Corrientes. Farther south, strong NE
gap winds are ongoing in the Tehuantepec region, with seas of 6
to 8 ft. Seas offshore Baja California are 8 to 11 ft, with 6 to
8 ft seas offshore Baja California, due to N to NW long-period 
swell. Gentle wind speeds prevail elsewhere along with seas of 
4-5 ft due to primarily a NW swell.

For the forecast, the cold front will weaken into a trough
tonight, then dissipate by Thu night. The NW swell following in 
the wake of this front will continue to build seas over the Baja 
California offshore waters through Thu. Seas up to 9 ft will 
reach as far south as the Cabo San Lucas offshore waters Thu and 
Thu night. Winds ahead of the cold front will diminish, but
moderate to fresh NW winds will develop southward behind it.
These winds will prevail through the Gulf of California through
Fri night. Strong NW winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will 
persist through tonight, before diminishing Thu Thu as high 
pressure over the Gulf of Mexico weakens and shifts eastward.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate S-SW winds remain south of the monsoon trough, with 
light to gentle winds N of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4-6 ft 
across the Central America offshore waters. Otherwise, gentle S 
winds with seas to 4 ft are noted across the Ecuador and 
Galapagos Islands offshore waters. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are over the waters offshore of Guatemala southward
to offshore Costa Rica. 

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh SW winds will 
prevail south of the monsoon trough into the weekend, before
diminishing. Light to gentle variable winds will persist 
elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas can also be expected. 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue into Thu
offshore Guatemala southeastward to the coast of Panama. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The cold front extends from Baja California Norte to 23N130W.
Ahead of the front, moderate NW winds prevail, with moderate to 
locally fresh N winds behind the front. Seas ahead of the front 
are 8 to 10 ft in NW long-period swell, with seas of 10 to 12 ft
in NW to N long period swell behind the front. High pressure 
ridging remains across the waters south of the front and north of
the ITCZ, with gentle to locally moderate winds from 20N to the
ITCZ. To the S of the monsoon trough, moderate mainly S winds
dominate. Seas to the S of 20N average 5 to 7 ft. 

For the forecast, the cold front will devolve into a trough
tonight, then dissipate by Thu night. Winds in the wake of the
front will diminish to gentle to moderate N of the monsoon trough
and ITCZ. Decaying swell will lead subsiding seas of 8-9 ft 
Thu, with further diminishing seas into Fri. Looking ahead, the
next set of long- period NW swell is expected to move into the 
far northwest part of the discussion area Sun. Elsewhere, 
moderate to locally fresh winds will remain south of the monsoon 
trough.

$$
KONARIK