000 AXPZ20 KNHC 091544 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Nov 9 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Costa Rica near 10N86W to 10N99W and to 10N120W. The ITCZ extends from 10N120W to 10N130W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 105W and 120W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The shear line previously to the west of the area has dissipated. A cold front extends from the northernmost Gulf of California to around 26N120W. Fresh to locally strong SW winds are ongoing ahead of the front in the northern gulf, with seas of 5 to 6 ft. Seas in the range of 8-12 ft offshore Baja California Norte are due to long- period swell, and seas of 6-9 ft are off Baja California Sur. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, strong gale force N to NNE winds prevail, along with seas of 7-9 ft. Moderate NW winds are off Cabo Corrientes. Gentle wind speeds prevail elsewhere along with seas of 4-5 ft due to primarily a NW swell. For the forecast, the cold front will weaken as it moves across the Gulf of California and Baja California through Thu night. The NW swell following in the wake of this front will continue to build seas over the Baja California offshore waters through early Thu. Seas up to 9 ft will reach as far south as the Cabo San Lucas offshore waters Thu and Thu night, with seas building to 12 ft N of Punta Eugenia today. The fresh to strong S to SW winds in the northern Gulf of California ahead of the cold front will diminish to fresh speeds early this afternoon. Winds will become gentle to moderate, N to NE in direction, in the far northern part of the Gulf this afternoon behind the front as it passes through that part of the Gulf. In the wake of the cold front, fresh NW winds are expected across most of the Gulf of California tonight through Fri night. Strong NW winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will persist through tonight. Winds will gradually diminish Thu as high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico weakens and shifts eastward. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh S-SW winds remain south of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle winds N of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4-6 ft across the Central America offshore waters. Otherwise, gentle S winds with seas to 4 ft are noted across the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the waters well offshore of Guatemala through Nicaragua and near the coast of Costa Rica. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough into the weekend. Light to gentle variable winds will persist elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas can also be expected. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through Thu offshore waters from Guatemala to Nicaragua, and near the coasts of Costa Rica and Panama. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A shear line ahead of a cold front has dissipated this morning. The cold front extends from Baja California Norte to 23N133W. Ahead of the front, moderate to fresh W to NW winds prevail, with fresh NW winds behind the front. Seas ahead of the front are 8 to 12 ft in NW long-period swell, with seas of 10 to 15 ft in NW to N long period swell behind the front. High pressure ridging remains across the waters south of the front and north of the ITCZ, with mostly gentle winds from 15N to 24N. To the south of 20N, seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range across much of the area. For the forecast, the cold front will continue to move east- southeastward and weaken as it moves across the Gulf of California and Baja California through Thu night. Fresh west- northwest to northwest winds behind the cold front will become moderate northwest to north winds by tonight. The cold front is expected to weaken to a trough tonight or early Thu in an E to W orientation roughly along 22N and east of about 130W. Decaying swell will lead subsiding seas of 8-9 ft by Thu night. Looking ahead, the next set of long-period NW swell is expected to move into the far northwest part of the discussion area Sun. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh winds will remain south of the monsoon trough. $$ KONARIK