000 AXPZ20 KNHC 082203 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Nov 8 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Costa Rica near 10N86W to 1012 mb low pres near 10.5N101W to 09N117W. The ITCZ continues from 09N117W to 09.5N125W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 06.5N to 09.5N between 78W and 85W, from 07N to 13.5N between 88W and 107W, and from 07N to 12N between 124W and 137W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A cold front is west of the area, extending from 32N119W to 30N121W to 27N130W to 26N140W. Recent ASCAT satellite data show fresh SW winds within 90 nm SE of the front, mainly N of 26.5N. Seas are 8 to 12 ft offshore Baja California Norte, primarily in NW swell, and 6 to 9 ft off Baja California Sur. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, strong to locally near gale force N to NNE winds prevail, along with seas of 7 to 9 ft. Southerly winds are starting to increasing now in the northern Gulf of California, and have reached moderate speeds with seas to 3 ft. Moderate NW winds are off Cabo Corrientes. Gentle wind speeds prevail elsewhere, with 4-5 ft seas. For the forecast, the cold front that extends from 32N119W to 27N130W to 26N140W will move east-southeastward and reach from 32N114W to 23.5N130W Wed morning, move across portions of the Gulf of California, then begin weakening by Wed evening when it reaches from 31N112.5W to 27N116W to 24.5N123W. NW swell in the wake of this front will continue to build seas over the Baja California offshore waters through early Thu. Seas up to 8 ft will reach as far south as the Cabo San Lucas offshore waters Thu into Thu night, with seas building to 12 ft N of Punta Eugenia through Wed. SW winds in the northern Gulf of California ahead of the front will increase to strong to near gale force this evening and persist through Wed morning. Behind the front, fresh N winds are expected across most of the Gulf of California Wed night through Fri night. Meanwhile, the strong to near gale force N winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will persist through Wed night. Winds will gradually diminish on Thu as high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico weakens and shifts eastward. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh S-SW winds remain south of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle winds N of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across the Central America offshore waters. Otherwise, gentle S winds with seas to 4 ft are noted across the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the waters well offshore of Guatemala through Nicaragua, but near the coast of Costa Rica. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough through the rest of the week. Light to gentle variable winds will persist elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas can also be expected. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through Thu well offshore in the waters from Guatemala to Nicaragua, but closer to the coast in the waters of Costa Rica and Panama. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front extends from 32N119W to 30N121W to 27N130W to 26N140W. Recent ASCAT satellite data show fresh SW winds within 90 nm SE of the front, mainly N of 26.5N. Fresh to locally strong NW winds are NW of the front, mainly N of 28N and E of 135W. This front has ushered in seas of 10 to 14 ft across the area north of 24N, confirmed by recent altimeter data, primarily in NW to N swell. The highest seas are occurring north of 26N. The 8 ft seas currently extend as far south as 22N. High pressure ridging remains across the waters south of the front and north of the ITCZ, with mostly gentle winds from 15N to 24N. To the south of 20N, seas are 5 to 6 ft across much of the area. The exception is from 05N to 10N, to the east of 105W, where fresh SW winds south of the monsoon trough are inducing seas of 6-7 ft. For the forecast, the cold front will continue to push east- southeastward, reaching as far south as about 22N by Thu before dissipating. Fresh to strong west-northwest to northwest winds behind the front will become moderate to fresh northwest to north winds late tonight and Wed. Large NW to N swell will continue to propagate S across the area. Seas of 12 ft or higher will propagate as far south as 26N tonight through Wed, with 8 ft seas propagating as far south as 09N latitude by Thu. Across the northern part of the area, winds and seas will slowly diminish on Thu as high pressure shifts eastward in response to a cold front that approaches the NW corner of the area Thu night. The next swell event will move into the northwestern waters over the weekend. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough. $$ Hagen