000 AXPZ20 KNHC 081601 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Nov 8 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Costa Rica near 10N86W to 1010 mb low pres near 12N95W to 09N117W. The ITCZ extends from 09N117W to 10N129W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 07N to 15N between 78W and 106W, and from 08N to 11N between 124W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A cold front is west of the area, extending from 32N120W to 30N124W to 28.5N130W to 27.5N140W. East of the front, fresh SW winds are likely occurring, well offshore Baja California Norte. Seas of 8 to 11 ft, primarily in NW swell, have moved into this same area. Winds and seas are quieter across the remainder of the area, except for the Gulf of Tehuantepec, where strong to near gale force N winds are currently occurring along with seas of 8 to 10 ft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring to the south and southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, a cold front that extends from 32N120W to 28.5N130W will move east-southeastward across the Gulf of California, the Baja California peninsula and its offshore waters through Thu while weakening and eventually dissipating. NW swell in the wake of this front will build seas over the Baja California offshore waters over the next few days. Seas up to 8 ft will reach as far south as the Cabo San Lucas offshore waters Wed night into Thu, with seas building to 12 ft N of Punta Eugenia. Strong SW winds are also expected in the northern Gulf of California ahead of the front tonight into Wed. The gradient behind the front will support northerly winds that will increase to fresh to locally strong over most of the Gulf Wed night through Fri along with moderate seas. Meanwhile, the strong to near gale force N winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will persist through Wed night. Winds will gradually diminish on Thu as high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico weakens as it shifts eastward. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh S-SW winds remain south of the monsoon trough. Seas are up to 6 ft in the western portions of Costa Rica and Nicaragua offshore waters. Light to gentle winds are north of the monsoon trough with seas to 5 ft. Otherwise, gentle S winds with seas to 4 ft are noted across the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the Central American offshore waters, primarily over the waters corresponding to Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua. Similar activity is just offshore Costa Rica and Panama. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough through the rest of the week. Light to gentle variable winds will persist elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas can also be expected. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through Thu well offshore in the waters from Guatemala to Nicaragua, but closer to the coast in the waters of Costa Rica and Panama. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front extends from 30N124W to 28.5N130W to 27.5N140W. Fresh SW winds are SE of the front. Fresh NW winds are NW of the front. This front has ushered in seas of 8 to 14 ft across the area north of 24N, primarily in NW to N swell. The highest seas are occurring north of 26N. High pressure ridging remains across the waters south of the front and north of the ITCZ, with mostly gentle winds from 15N to 25N. To the south of 22N, seas are 5 to 6 ft across much of the area. The exception is from 05N to 10N, to the east of 113W, where fresh SW winds south of the monsoon trough are inducing seas to 7 ft. For the forecast, the cold front will continue to push east- southeastward, reaching as far south as about 22N by Thu before eventually dissipating. Fresh to strong west to northwest winds behind the front will become moderate to fresh northwest to north winds tonight and Wed. Large NW to N swell will propagate S across the area. Seas of 12 ft or higher will propagate as far south as 25N tonight through Wed, with 8 ft seas propagating as far south as 08N latitude by Thu. Across the northern part of the area, winds and seas will slowly diminish on Thu as high pressure over the area shifts eastward in response to a cold front that approaches the NW corner of the area Thu night. The next swell event for the northern waters will follow this front, entering the NW waters by Fri night. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough. $$ Hagen