000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080830 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Nov 08 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0815 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the southwestern Caribbean Sea westward to central Costa Rica and to 10N85W to 13N96W to 09N110W. The ITCZ extends from 09N110W to 10N120W to 09N130W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 12N to 15N between 91W-95W, from 10N to 12N between 94W-97W and within 60 nm N of the trough between 126W-129W and also between 136W-140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm S of the trough between 103W-105W and within 60 nm N of the trough between 123W-125W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Relatively weak high pressure is over this part of the discussion area. The associated gradient is allowing for gentle to locally moderate northwest to north winds to exist over the offshore waters of Baja California Norte along with seas of 5-7 ft. Northwest swell producing seas of 8-10 ft has propagated into the extreme NW offshore waters. Moderate SE to S winds are noted in the northern Gulf of California, with light to gentle S winds over the rest of the Gulf. Seas in the Gulf are 2-3 ft. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, northerly winds are of fresh to strong speeds as depicted in an overnight ASCAT data pass. Seas there are now up to 8 ft in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Moderate to fresh northwest winds are off the Cabo Corrientes/Jalisco coast. with light to gentle winds elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters. Seas are generally 4-5 ft due to a S to SW swell. For the forecast, a cold front that extends from southern California to just west of the northwest part of the offshore zones will move east-southeastward across the Gulf of California, the Baja California peninsula and its offshore waters through Thu while weakening and eventually dissipating. NW swell in the wake of this front will build seas over the Baja California offshore waters over the next few days. Seas up to 8 ft will reach as far south as the Cabo San Lucas offshore waters Wed night into Thu, with seas building to near 12 ft N of Punta Eugenia. Strong SW winds are also expected in the northern Gulf of California ahead of the front tonight into Wed. The gradient behind the front will support northerly winds that will increase to fresh to locally strong over most of the Gulf Wed night through Fri along with moderate seas. Meanwhile, the strong N winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will persist over the next few days, reaching near gale force this evening through Wed night. Winds will gradually diminish on Thu as high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico weakens as it shifts eastward. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed during the past few hours just southeast and south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec from 12N to 15N between 91W-96W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh S-SW winds remain south of the monsoon trough. Seas are up to 6 ft in the western portions of Costa Rica and Nicaragua offshore waters. Light to gentle winds are north of the monsoon trough with seas to 5 ft. Otherwise, gentle S winds with seas to 4 ft are noted across the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the Central American offshore waters, primarily over the waters corresponding to Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua. Similar activity is just offshore Costa Rica. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are near the coast of Panama. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough through the rest of the week. Light to gentle variable winds will persist elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas can also be expected through Thu. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through about Thu, with activity also S of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure remains across the waters north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough and W of about 125W. A cold front extends from southern California southwestward to 30N124W to 27N130W and to beyond the area at 26N140W. Moderate NW to N winds are behind the front as seen in recent partial ASCAT data passes. Seas of 8-12 ft are moving into the northern waters, N of 27N and W of 121W. Higher seas of 10-14 ft are north of 29N. Gentle to moderate NE-E trade winds continue from 10N to 25N and W of 120W. Seas in this area are to 6 ft in a northwest to north swell that is mixing with long-period south swell. Gentle to moderate SE trade winds and seas to 6 ft are south of the ITCZ west of 120W. Moderate to fresh SW winds are south of the monsoon trough from 00N to 10N and E of 120W. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the ridge W of Baja California and the monsoon/ITCZ continues to relax over the region. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail N of the monsoon trough through at least Thu, with moderate to locally fresh winds S of the monsoon trough. The aforementioned cold front will push east-southeastward over the northern waters and the Baja California peninsula through Thu while eventually dissipating. Winds ahead of the front will be moderate to fresh. Fresh to strong west to northwest winds behind the front will become moderate to fresh northwest to north winds tonight and Wed. Seas higher than 12 ft will continue to propagate S of 30N and roughly between 122W-140W through Wed. Peak seas reaching about 15 ft can be expected tonight into Wed, but should be confined to N of 29N. Winds and seas will slowly diminish Wed through Thu night as high pressure over the area shifts eastward in response to a cold front that approaches the NW corner of the area. $$ Aguirre