000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080331 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Nov 08 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the southwestern Caribbean Sea westward to central Costa Rica and to 10N85W to 10N100W to 10N110W. The ITCZ extends from 10N110W to 10N120W to 09N130W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm north of the trough between 96W-98W, and within 60 nm of the trough between 100W-104W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of ITCZ between 125W-129W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Weak surface ridging extends across the Baja California peninsula. Gentle to locally moderate northwest to north winds are over the offshore waters of Baja California Norte with seas of 5-7 ft. Northwest swell with seas to 8 ft is beginning to move into the extreme NW offshore waters. Moderate SE to S winds are noted in the northern Gulf of California, with light to gentle S winds over the rest of the Gulf. Seas are up to 3 ft. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, northerly winds are fresh to strong with seas to 6 ft. Moderate winds are off the Cabo Corrientes/Jalisco coast with light to gentle winds elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters. Seas are generally 4-5 ft due to a S to SW swell. For the forecast, a cold front that extends from southern California to just west of these waters will move east- southeastward across the Gulf of California, the Baja California peninsula and its offshore waters through Thu while weakening and eventually dissipating. NW swell in the wake of this front will build seas over the Baja California offshore waters over the next few days. Seas up to 8 ft will reach as far south as the Cabo San Lucas offshore waters Wed night into Thu, with seas building to near 12 ft N of Punta Eugenia. Strong SW winds are also expected in the northern Gulf of California ahead of the front Tue night into Wed. As the front moves southward over Baja California, northerly winds behind the front will increase to fresh to locally strong over most of the Gulf Wed night through Fri with moderate seas. Meanwhile, the strong N winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will persist over the next few days and reach near gale force Tue evening through Wed night. Winds will gradually diminish on Thu as high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico weakens as it shifts eastward. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh S-SW winds remain south of the monsoon trough. Seas are up to 6 ft in the western portions of Costa Rica and Nicaragua offshore waters. Light to gentle winds are north of the monsoon trough with seas to 5 ft. Otherwise, gentle S winds with seas to 4 ft are noted across the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the Central American offshore waters, primarily the waters corresponding to Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua. Similar activity is just offshore Costa Rica. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are near the coast of Panama. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough through the rest of the week. Light to gentle variable winds will persist elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas can also be expected through Thu. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through about Thu, with activity also S of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure remains across the waters north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough and W of about 125W. A cold front extends from southern California southwestward to 29N135W and to 28N140W. Moderate N winds are behind the front. Seas of 8-12 ft are moving into the northern waters, N of 29N and W of 121W. Moderate NE-E trades prevail from 10N to 25N and W of 120W. Seas in this area are to 6 ft in mixed swell. Gentle to moderate SE winds and seas to 7 ft are south of the ITCZ west of 120W. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds are south of the monsoon trough from 00N to 10N and E of 120W. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the ridge W of Baja California and the monsoon/ITCZ continues to relax over the region. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail N of the monsoon trough through at least Thu, with moderate to locally fresh winds S of the monsoon trough. The aforementioned cold front will push east-southeastward over the northern waters and the Baja California peninsula through Thu while and eventually dissipating. Winds ahead of the front will be moderate to fresh with fresh to locally strong N winds behind it through Tue. Seas over 12 ft will continue to propagate S of 30N tonight into Tue roughly between 124W-140W. Peak seas reaching about 15 ft can be expected Tue night and into Wed. Winds and seas will slowly diminish Wed through Thu night. $$ Aguirre