000 AXPZ20 KNHC 072141 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Nov 7 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica/Nicaragua near 11N86W to 10N100W to 09N111W. The ITCZ extends from 09N111W to 09N127W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 15N and E of 105W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 11N and W of 119W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Weak surface ridging extends across the Baja California peninsula. Gentle to locally moderate northwest to north winds are over the offshore waters of Baja California Norte with seas of 5-7 ft. Northwest swell with seas to 8 ft is beginning to move into the extreme NW offshore waters. Moderate S winds are noted in the northern Gulf of California with light to gentle S winds over the rest of the Gulf. Seas are up to 3 ft. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, northerly winds are fresh to strong with seas to 6 ft. Moderate winds are off the Cabo Corrientes/Jalisco coast with light to gentle winds elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters. Seas range 4-5 ft within S to SW swell. For the forecast, a cold front is forecast to move over the Baja California peninsula Tue night through Wed, and dissipate by Thu. Swell associated with this front will increase over the Baja California offshore waters over the next few days. Seas up to 8 ft will reach as far south as the Cabo San Lucas offshore waters by Wed into Wed night with seas building to near 12 ft N of Punta Eugenia. Strong SW winds are also expected in the northern Gulf of California ahead of the front Tue night into Wed. As the front moves southward over Baja California, northerly winds behind the front will increase to fresh to locally strong over most of the Gulf Wed night through Fri with moderate seas. Meanwhile, the strong N winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will persist over the next few days and reach near gale force Tue evening through Wed night. Winds will gradually diminish on Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh S-SW winds remain south of the monsoon trough. Seas are up to 6 ft in the western portions of Costa Rica and Nicaragua offshore waters. Light to gentle winds are north of the monsoon trough with seas to 5 ft. Otherwise, gentle S winds with seas to 4 ft are noted across the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the Central American offshore waters. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough through the rest of the week. Light to gentle variable winds will persist elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas can also be expected through Thu. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through mid-week mainly over the offshore waters S of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure remains across the waters north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough and W of about 125W. A cold front is moving into the northern waters and stretches from 20N132W to 30N140W. Moderate N winds are behind the front. Seas up to 8 ft are moving into the northern waters, N of 29N and W of 121W. Moderate NE-E trades prevail from 10N to 25N and W of 120W. Seas in this area are to 6 ft in mixed swell. Gentle to moderate SE winds and seas to 7 ft are south of the ITCZ west of 120W. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds are south of the monsoon trough from 00N to 10N and E of 120W. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the ridge W of Baja California and the monsoon/ITCZ continues to relax over the region. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail N of the monsoon trough through midweek, with moderate to locally fresh winds S of the monsoon trough. The cold front entering the waters will push south and east over the northern waters and Baja California through Wed night and dissipate by Thu. Winds ahead of the front will be moderate to fresh with fresh to locally strong N winds behind it through Tue. Seas over 12 ft will propagate to S of 30N by tonight between 124W-140W. Peak seas reaching about 15 ft can be expected Tue night and into Wed. The cold front will gradually dissipate over the waters Tue into Wed night. Winds and seas will slowly diminish Wed through Fri. $$ AReinhart