000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071558
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Nov 7 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica/Nicaragua
near 1N86W to 10N101W to 09N116W. The ITCZ extends from 09N116W
to 09N130W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 08N to 15N and E of 107W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 119W and
140W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging extends across the Baja California
peninsula. Gentle to moderate northwest to north winds are 
over the offshore waters of Baja California Norte with seas of 
5-7 ft in NW swell. Moderate S winds are noted in the northern
Gulf of California with light to gentle S winds over the rest of
the Baja California offshore waters. Seas range 2 to 4 ft. In the
Gulf of Tehuantepec, winds are fresh to locally strong with seas
to 6 ft.Moderate winds are off the Cabo Corrientes/Jalisco coast
with light to gentle winds elsewhere over the Mexican offshore 
waters. Seas range 4-6 ft within S to SW swell.

For the forecast, a new set of NW swell associated with a cold 
front will move across the Baja California Norte offshore waters 
this evening, and reach the Cabo San Lucas offshore waters by 
Wed night into Thu. A cold front will move across Baja California
on Tue night into Wed, with seas building to near 12 ft N of 
Punta Eugenia. Strong SW winds are also expected in the northern
Gulf of California ahead of the front Tue night into Wed. The
front will move southward over Baja California through Wed night
and dissipate by Thu. Winds behind the front will increase to 
fresh to strong over nearly the entire Gulf by Thu night. Seas 
will build over the Gulf on Thu. Strong N winds will begin in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec today and reach near gale force Tue evening 
through Wed night. Winds will gradually diminish on Thu.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh S-SW winds remain south of the monsoon
trough. Seas are up to 6 ft in the western portions of Costa 
Rica and Nicaragua offshore waters. Light to gentle winds are 
north of the monsoon trough with seas to 6 ft. Otherwise, gentle 
S winds with seas to 5 ft are noted across the Ecuador and 
Galapagos Islands offshore waters. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are over the Central American offshore waters.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh SW winds will 
prevail south of the monsoon trough through Thu night, with 
light to gentle variable winds persisting elsewhere. Slight to 
moderate seas can also be expected through Thu. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms will continue through mid-week mainly over the
offshore waters S of the monsoon trough.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure remains across the waters north of the ITCZ/monsoon
trough and W of about 120W. Moderate to locally fresh NE-E 
trades prevail from 10N to 27N and W of 120W. Seas in this area 
7 ft in mixed swell. Moderate N to NE winds are elsewhere N of 
27N with seas to 7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds and 
seas to 7 ft are south of the ITCZ west of 120W. Moderate to 
fresh SW winds are south of the monsoon trough from 00N to 08N 
and E of 115W.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the ridge W of 
Baja California and the monsoon/ITCZ continues to relax over the
region. Winds will diminish to gentle to moderate tonight through
Wed night. A cold front will move south of 30N today, ushering 
in large N swell and fresh to locally strong winds into Wed. Seas
over 12 ft will propagate to S of 30N by tonight between 
124W-140W. Peak seas reaching about 15 ft can be expected Tue 
night and into Wed. Winds and seas associated with this front 
will subside toward the end of the week.

$$
AReinhart