000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070856 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Nov 07 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0845 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the southwestern Caribbean Sea to across central Costa Rica and to 10N85W to 10N100W to 09N106W. The ITCZ extends from 09N106W to 10N120W and to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm S of the ITCZ between 127W-134W and within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 101W-105W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm S of the trough between 83W-85W and also between 88W-90W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Weak surface ridging extends across the Baja California peninsula. Gentle to moderate northwest to north winds are over the offshore waters of Baja California Norte N of 28N along with seas of 5-7 ft in NW swell. An overnight ASCAT pass depicts these winds. Light to gentle northwest winds are over the rest of the Baja California offshore waters, with seas of 5-6 ft due to a NW swell. Winds are light and variable winds are over the Gulf of California, except in the northern part where moderate southeast to south winds are present. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range over the Gulf of California, except for slighter lower seas of 2-3 ft in the southern half of the Gulf. Moderate winds are off the Cabo Corrientes/Jalisco coast with light to gentle winds elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters. Seas range 4-6 ft. For the forecast, a new set of NW swell associated with a cold front will move across the Baja California Norte offshore waters this evening, and reach the Cabo San Lucas offshore waters by Wed night into Thu. Seas will build to near 12 ft N of Punta Eugenia Wed as a cold front moves across the area. Strong SW winds are also expected in the northern Gulf of California ahead of the front on Wed and into Wed night. Moderate to fresh N winds will prevail in the Gulf from Thu into Thu night. Meanwhile, strong N winds will begin in the Gulf of Tehuantepec today and reach near gale force Tue evening through Wed night. Winds will gradually diminish on Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh S-SW winds remain south of the monsoon trough. Seas are up to 8 ft in the western portions of Costa Rica and Nicaragua offshore waters. Light to gentle winds are north of the monsoon trough with seas to 6 ft. Otherwise, gentle S winds with seas to 5 ft are noted across the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are over some areas of the offshore waters. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough through mid-week, with light to gentle variable winds persisting elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas can also be expected through Thu. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through mid-week mainly over the offshore waters S of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure remains across the waters north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough and W of about 120W. Moderate to locally fresh NE-E trades prevail from 10N to 27N and W of 120W. Seas in this area remain 8 ft in mixed swell. Moderate N to NE winds are elsewhere N of 27N with seas to 7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds and seas to 7 ft are south of the ITCZ west of 120W. Moderate to fresh SW winds are south of the monsoon trough from 00N to 08N and E of 115W. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the ridge W of Baja California and the monsoon/ITCZ continues to relax over the region. Winds will diminish to gentle to moderate through Wed night. Seas will also subside by tonight as the winds diminish. A cold front that is just N of the area will move south of 30N today, ushering in large N swell and fresh to locally strong winds into Wed. Seas over 12 ft will propagate to S of 30N by tonight between 124W-140W, with peak seas reaching about 15 ft on Tue night and into Wed. Winds and seas associated with this front will subside toward the end of the week. $$ Aguirre