000 AXPZ20 KNHC 061550 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Nov 6 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the border of Costa Rica/Nicaragua near 11N86W to 11N103W to 10N119W. The ITCZ extends from 10N119W to 10N131W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 13N and E of 97W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 08N to 12N and W of 118W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Weak surface ridging extends across the Baja California peninsula. Moderate to fresh winds are noted across Baja California Norte, N of 25N with seas to 8 ft in NW swell. Light to gentle N winds prevail over the rest of the Baja California in addition to the Gulf of California. Seas range 4 to 6 ft over the rest of the Baja California offshore waters with seas to 4 ft across the Gulf. Moderate winds are off the Cabo Corrientes/Jalisco coast with light to gentle winds elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters. Seas range 4 to 6 ft. For the forecast, the NW swell affecting the Baja California Norte offshore waters will subside tonight. New NW swell associated with a cold front will move across the Baja California Norte offshore waters Mon night and reach the Cabo San Lucas offshore waters by Wed night into Thu. Seas will build to near 12 ft N of Punta Eugenia Wed through Wed night due to the passage of the front. A Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is forecast to begin Mon. Strong N winds will start in the Gulf by Mon afternoon and reach near gale force winds Tue evening into Wed afternoon. Winds will gradually diminish on Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms continue to impact areas from offshore Colombia NW to offshore Guatemala. Gusty winds and rough seas are likely near the thunderstorms. Moderate to fresh S-SW winds remain south of the monsoon trough, with the fresh winds within the southern Nicaragua and Panama offshore waters. Seas are up to 8 ft in the area of the strongest winds. Light to gentle winds are north of the monsoon trough with seas to 6 ft. Otherwise, gentle to moderate S winds with seas to 6 ft are noted across the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters. For the forecast, scattered showers and tstms will persist through mid-week mainly across the offshore waters S of the monsoon trough. Fresh SW winds S of the monsoon trough and across the Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica offshores will diminish tonight. Seas will also gradually subside in these offshore waters by tonight. Light to gentle variable winds will persist elsewhere with moderate seas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure remains across the waters north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough and W of 120W. Moderate to fresh NE-E trades prevail from 10N to 27N and W of 125W. Seas in this area remain 8 ft in mixed swell. Moderate N to NE winds prevail elsewhere N of 27N with seas to 7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds and seas to 7 ft are south of the ITCZ west of 115W. Moderate to fresh SW winds are south of the monsoon trough from 00N to 08N and E of 115W. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the ridge W of Baja California and the monsoon/ITCZ will relax today. Winds are expected to diminish to gentle to moderate today through Tue. Seas will also subside today as the winds diminish. A cold front is forecast to drop south of 30N by Mon night, ushering in large N swell and fresh to locally strong winds into Wed. Seas over 12 ft will drop below 31N by Mon night between 124W and 138W, with seas building near 15 ft on Tue night into Wed. Winds and seas associated with this front will subside toward the end of the week. $$ AReinhart