000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061013
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Nov 6 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0910 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the border of Costa
Rica/Nicaragua near 10N86W to 10N105W to 09N115W. The ITCZ 
extends from 09N115W to 10N130W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 14N 
and E of 97W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 08N
to 12N W of 123W.  

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Winds have diminished to light to gentle speeds along the Gulf 
of California where seas are currently 1 to 3 ft. Weak surface
ridging extends across the Baja California peninsula offshore 
waters, which is supporting moderate NW winds across the Baja 
California Norte offshore waters with seas of 5 to 6 ft in NW 
swell. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the Jalisco and
Colima offshore waters. Light to gentle variable winds are
elsewhere with seas to 6 ft in mixed SW and NW swell.  

For the forecast, the NW swell affecting the Baja California
Norte offshore waters will subside tonight. New NW swell 
associated with a cold front will move across the Baja California
Norte offshore waters Tue morning and reach the area of Cabo San
Lucas Wed night into Thu. Seas will build to near 12 ft N of 
Punta Eugenia Wed through Wed night due to the passage of the 
front. A Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is forecast to begin 
Mon with winds reaching strong speeds Mon night and near gale
force winds Tue evening into Wed afternoon. Winds will gradually
diminish afterwards through Thu evening. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms continue to impact
areas from offshore Colombia NW to offshore Guatemala. Gusty 
winds and rough seas are likely near the thunderstorms. Moderate
to fresh S-SW winds remain south of the monsoon trough, with the
fresh winds within the southern Nicaragua and Panama offshore 
waters. Seas are up to 8 ft in the area of the strongest winds. 
Light to gentle winds are north of the monsoon trough with seas 
to 6 ft. Otherwise, gentle to moderate S winds with seas to 6 ft
are noted across the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore 
waters.

For the forecast, scattered showers and tstms will persist through
mid-week mainly across the offshore waters S of the monsoon 
trough. Fresh SW winds S of the monsoon trough and across the 
Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica offshores will diminish this 
evening. Seas will also gradually subside in these offshore 
waters by this evening. Light to gentle variable winds will 
persist elsewhere with moderate seas. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure remains across the waters north of the 
ITCZ/monsoon trough and W of 120W. Fresh NE-E trades prevail 
from 10N to 27N and W of 125W. Seas in this area remain in the 
8-9 ft range in mixed swell. Moderate N to NE winds prevail 
elsewhere N of 27N with seas to 7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh 
SE winds and seas to 7 ft are south of the ITCZ west of 115W. 
Moderate to fresh SW winds are south of the monsoon trough from 
00N to 08N and E of 110W.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the ridge W of 
Baja California and the monsoon/ITCZ will continue to support 
moderate to fresh trades in the west-central waters through 
tonight. Winds will continue to diminish to gentle to moderate on
Sun and into early next week as the pressure gradient relaxes 
across the basin. Seas near these strongest winds will subside
today as the winds also diminish. A cold front is forecast to 
drop south of 30N by Mon night, ushering in large N swell and 
fresh to locally strong winds into Wed. Seas near 17 ft can be 
expected N of 27N between 115W and 135W Mon night into Tue. 
Winds and seas associated with this front will subside toward the
end of the week.

$$
Ramos