000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060344 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Nov 6 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the border of Costa Rica/Nicaragua near 11N86W to 11N100W to 10N114W. The ITCZ extends from 10N114W to 10N130W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 13N and E of 96W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate northerly winds are across the central and southern Gulf of California with seas to 5 ft. Light to gentle winds prevail in the northern Gulf with seas to 2 ft. High pressure ridging continues to extend across the California Baja offshore waters, however it has weakened, which is has diminished the pressure gradient and thus the NW winds to moderate speeds across the Baja California Norte offshore waters. NW swell support seas in the 5 to 8 ft range in this region as well. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds prevail across the remainder Mexican offshore waters with seas to 7 ft. For the forecast, winds will continue to gradually diminish to gentle speeds through tonight across the Gulf of California. The new set of NW swell with brief fresh winds will subside Sun night. Another set of NW swell associated with a cold front will move across the Baja California offshore waters Mon night and continue through most of the week. Seas will build to near 12 ft N of Punta Eugenia by midweek due to the passage of the front. A Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is forecast to begin Mon evening with strong winds developing over the region early Tue along with building seas. These strong winds will diminish by Thu morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms continue to impact areas from offshore Colombia NW to offshore El Salvador. Expect gusty winds with rough seas near the thunderstorms. Moderate to fresh S-SW winds remain south of the monsoon trough, with the fresh winds within the southern Nicaragua and Panama offshore waters. Seas are 8 ft in the area of the strongest winds. Light to gentle winds are north of the monsoon trough with seas to 7 ft. Otherwise, gentle to moderate S winds with seas to 6 ft are noted across the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters. For the forecast, scattered showers and tstms will persist through early next week mainly across the offshore waters S of the monsoon trough. Fresh SW winds S of the monsoon trough and across the Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica offshores will diminish by Sun evening. Seas will also subside below 8 ft in these offshore waters by Sun evening. Light to gentle variable winds will persist elsewhere with moderate seas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure is across the waters north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough and W of 114W. Fresh NE-E trades prevail from 12N to 20N and west of 125W. Seas in this area remain in the 8-10 ft range in mostly N swell. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds prevail elsewhere N of 25N and W of 115W with seas to 8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds and seas to 7 ft are south of the ITCZ west of 110W. Moderate to fresh SW winds are south of the monsoon trough from 00N to 08N and E of 110W. A trough is noted near 135W with ASCAT showing fresh winds northwest of the trough. Seas are to 8 ft near the strongest winds. For the forecast, N swell will continue to propagate across the northern waters into the weekend N of 29N and E of 121W, reinforcing seas of 7-10 ft. The pressure gradient between the ridge W of Baja California and the monsoon/ITCZ will continue to support moderate to fresh trades in the west-central waters through tonight. Winds will continue to diminish to gentle to moderate on Sun and into early next week as the pressure gradient relaxes across the basin. Seas near these strongest winds will subside by Sun as the winds also diminish. A cold front is forecast to drop south of 30N on Mon, ushering in large N swell and fresh to locally strong winds by Mon night into Tue. Seas near 15 ft can be expected N of 26N between 120W and 140W Mon night into Tue. Winds and seas associated with this front will subside toward the end of the week. The trough near 135W will continue to drift SW while weakening tonight. $$ Ramos