000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051550
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Nov 5 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the border of Costa
Rica/Nicaragua near 11N86W to 10N104W to 08N129W. The ITCZ
extends from 08N129W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 14N and E of 97W.
Showers are also noted near the monsoon trough from 06N to 10N
between 125W and 126W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Winds across the Gulf of California have relaxed to moderate to
fresh with seas to 6 ft. High pressure ridging continues to
extend across the California Baja offshore waters. Winds are
moderate to locally fresh across these waters with 5-8 ft seas,
with the highest seas in the far western offshore waters of Cabo
San Lucas, W of 114W. Moderate to fresh winds are noted off the
Cabo Corrientes coast with recent altimeter data confirming 5 to
7 ft seas in that offshore waters. Gentle to moderate winds 
prevail across the remainder Mexican offshore waters with seas to
6 ft.

For the forecast, winds will continue to gradually diminish to 
gentle speeds through tonight across the Gulf of California. 
Fresh NW winds and swell offshore Baja California will diminish 
during this afternoon. An additional set of NW swell with brief 
fresh winds will approach the Baja California Norte offshore 
waters later today and subside Sun night. Otherwise, a Gulf of 
Tehuantepec gap wind event is forecast to begin Mon evening and 
continue through Wed night. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms continue to impact
areas from offshore Costa Rica NW to offshore Guatemala. Expect 
gusty winds with rough seas near the thunderstorms. Moderate to 
fresh S-SW winds are south of the monsoon trough, with the fresh
winds within the Costa Rica and Panama offshore waters. Seas are
8 ft near the strongest winds. Light to gentle winds are north 
of the monsoon trough with seas to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds
with seas 5 to 7 ft are noted the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands
offshore waters. 

For the forecast, scattered showers and tstms will persist
through early next week mainly across the offshore waters S of 
the monsoon trough. Fresh SW winds S of the monsoon trough and
across the Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica offshores will
diminish by Sun evening. Seas will also subside below 8 ft in
these offshore waters by Sun evening. Light to gentle variable 
winds will persist elsewhere with seas to 6 ft. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure is across the waters north of the ITCZ/monsoon 
trough and W of 114W. Fresh to strong NE-E trades prevail from 
12N to 20N and west of 130W. Seas in this area remain in the 
8-11 ft range in mixed NE wind waves and N swell. Moderate to 
fresh NE to E winds prevail elsewhere N of 25N and W of 120W with
seas to 8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds and seas to 8 
ft are south of the ITCZ west of 120W. Moderate to fresh SW winds
are south of the monsoon trough from 02N to 08N and E of 110W. A
trough is noted near 134W with moderate to fresh winds along the
northern part of the feature. Seas are to 8 ft near the strongest
winds. 

For the forecast, N swell will continue to propagate across the 
northern waters into the weekend, reinforcing seas of 7-10 ft. 
The pressure gradient between the ridge W of Baja California and 
the monsoon/ITCZ will continue to support fresh to locally strong
trades in the west-central waters through Sun. Seas near these
strongest winds will subside by Sun as the winds also diminish.  
A weak cold front is forecast to drop south of 30N by late Mon, 
ushering in large N swell and fresh to locally strong winds by
Mon night into Tue. Winds and seas associated with this front 
will subside later in the week. 

$$
AReinhart