000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050908 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Nov 5 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0950 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 11N85W to 11N100W to 08N115W. The ITCZ extends from 08N115W to 09N126W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 15N E of 95W. Scattered moderate convection is noted elsewhere from 10N to 15N between 120W and 137W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong NW winds continue along the Gulf of California with seas to 7 ft. High pressure ridging extends across the Baja California offshore waters where recent scatterometer data continue to show moderate to locally fresh NW winds and NW swell of 5-8 ft prevail. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds are also noted across the Jalisco and Michoacan offshore waters with seas to 6 ft. Gentle to locally moderate winds prevail across the remainder Mexican offshore waters where altimeter data show seas to 5 ft. For the forecast, northerly winds associated with a broad surface ridge will continue to support fresh to strong winds along the Gulf of California through this morning. Winds will gradually diminish to gentle speeds through tonight along the Gulf of California. Fresh NW winds and swell offshore Baja California will diminish during the afternoon hours. An additional set of NW swell with brief fresh winds will approach the Baja California Norte offshore waters this evening and subside Sun night. Otherwise, a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is forecast to begin Mon evening and continue through Wed night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms continue to impact areas from offshore Costa Rica NW to offshore Guatemala. Expect gusty winds with rough seas near the thunderstorms. Moderate to fresh, with occasional strong, S-SW winds are south of the monsoon trough with seas to 8 ft. Light to gentle winds are north of the monsoon trough with seas to 5 ft. For the forecast, scattered showers and tstms will persist through early next week mainly across the offshore waters S of the monsoon trough. Fresh SW winds S of the monsoon trough and across the Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica offshores will diminish by Sun evening. Light to gentle variable winds will persist elsewhere with seas to 5 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure is across the waters north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough. Fresh to strong NE-E trades prevail from 12N to 23N and west of 115W. Seas in this area remain in the 8-11 ft range in mixed NE wind waves and N swell. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail elsewhere N of 25N and W of 120W. Seas are 7-10 ft in primarily NW swell in this region. Gentle to moderate SE winds are south of the monsoon trough west of 120W with seas to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the remainder of the open waters along with mainly 4-7 ft seas. For the forecast, NW swell will continue to propagate across the northern waters into the weekend, reinforcing seas of 7-10 ft. The pressure gradient between the ridge W of Baja California and the monsoon/ITCZ will continue to support fresh to locally strong trades in the west-central waters through Sat. Seas will build up to near 12 ft as the wind waves combine with the NW swell. The weak low pressure and a reinforcing surge of fresh northerly winds will move SW toward 24N140W by Sat night before exiting the area. Moderate to fresh winds with 8 ft seas will follow the system as it moves across the NW portions of the forecast waters. Another weak cold front may drop south of 30N by early next week, ushering in large N swell. Otherwise, expect improved conditions for the end of the weekend into early next week. $$ Ramos