000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050342
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Nov 5 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Nicaragua near 
11N86W to 09N93W to 10N100W to 08N115W. The ITCZ extends from 
08N115W to 10N125W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 12N and E of 
93W. Scattered moderate convection is noted elsewhere from 10N 
to 15N between 120W and 140W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to locally strong winds continue along the Gulf of 
California north of 25N with seas 5 to 7 ft. High pressure 
ridging extends across the remainder of the offshore waters. 
Moderate to fresh NW winds prevail along the Baja California 
offshore waters along with NW swell of 5-9 ft across the area. 
Moderate to fresh winds are also noted off the SW Mexico coast 
near Cabo Corrientes with 5 to 7 ft seas. Gentle to locally 
moderate winds prevail elsewhere south of Mexico with 4 to 6 ft 
seas.

For the forecast, northerly winds associated with a broad 
surface ridge will continue to support fresh to strong winds 
along the Gulf of California through Sat morning. Winds will 
gradually diminish to gentle speeds through Sat evening across 
the Gulf. Fresh NW winds will prevail offshore Baja California 
through Sat morning, followed by diminishing winds and decaying 
NW swell by Sat evening. An additional set of NW swell with brief
fresh winds will approach the Baja California Norte offshore 
waters Sat evening and subside by Sun evening. A new Gulf of 
Tehuantepec gap wind event is forecast to begin Mon evening and 
continue through Wed night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms continue to impact
areas from offshore Colombia NW to offshore Guatemala. Expect
gusty winds with rough seas near the thunderstorms. Moderate to  
fresh, with occasional strong, S-SW winds are south of the 
monsoon trough, with light to gentle winds north of the monsoon 
trough. Locally moderate winds are noted in the Gulf of 
Papagayo. Slight to moderate seas prevail, highest in the 
offshores of Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica.

For the forecast, scattered showers and tstms will persist 
across the offshores through the weekend. Light to gentle winds 
will persist north of the monsoon trough. Winds will increase 
south of the monsoon trough to fresh through Sat as the monsoon 
trough lifts northward to 10N. This will result in slightly 
higher seas near the strongest winds. The monsoon trough will 
reach to near 12N by Tue night.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure is across the waters north of the ITCZ/monsoon 
trough. A low pres system near 28N129W with a central pressure of
1021 mb is producing moderate to fresh winds north of it, with 
seas 8-9 ft in N to NW swell. Fresh to strong NE-E trades 
continue to prevail from 12N to 23N and west of 115W. Seas in 
this area remain in the 8-11 ft range in mixed NE wind waves and 
N swell. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail elsewhere north 
of the ITCZ/monsoon trough to 25N and between 115W and 110W. Seas
are 7-10 ft in primarily NW swell in this region. Gentle to 
moderate SE winds are south of the monsoon trough west of 120W 
with seas to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the 
remainder of the open waters along with mainly 4-6 ft seas.

For the forecast, NW swell will continue to propagate across the
northern waters into the weekend, reinforcing seas of 7-10 ft.
The pressure gradient between the ridge W of Baja California and
the monsoon/ITCZ will continue to support fresh to locally strong
trades in the west-central waters through Sat. Seas will build up
to near 12 ft as the wind waves combine with the NW swell. The weak
low pressure and a reinforcing surge of fresh northerly winds 
will move SW toward 24N140W by Sat night before exiting the area.
Moderate to fresh winds with 8 ft seas will follow the system as
it moves across the NW portions of the forecast waters. Another 
weak cold front may drop south of 30N by early next week, 
ushering in large N swell. Otherwise, expect improved conditions 
for the end of the weekend into early next week.

$$
Ramos