000 AXPZ20 KNHC 041554 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Nov 4 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to 08N99W to 11N113W. The ITCZ continues from 11N113W to 12N126W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 13N and E of 93W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 10N to 15N between 108W and 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to locally strong winds continue along the Gulf of California north of 26N with seas to 4 ft. High pressure ridging extends across the remainder of the offshore waters. Moderate to fresh NW winds prevail along the Baja California offshore waters. Locally strong winds are near the coast N of Cabo San Lazaro. Overnight altimeter data and latest model guidance indicates NW swell of 6-10 ft across the same area, with the highest seas between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lazaro. Moderate to fresh winds are also noted off the SW Mexico coast near Cabo Corrientes with seas 4 to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere south of Mexico with 4 to 5 ft seas. For the forecast, northerly winds associated with a broad surface ridge will continue to support fresh to strong winds along the Gulf of California through Sat morning. Winds will gradually diminish to gentle speeds through Sat evening across the Gulf. Fresh NW winds will prevail offshore Baja California through Sat morning, followed by diminishing winds and decaying NW swell by Sat evening. An additional set of NW swell will approach the Baja California Norte offshore waters Sat evening and subside by Sun evening. A new Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is forecast to begin Mon evening and continue through Tue night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms continue to impact areas from offshore Colombia NW to offshore El Salvador. Moderate to locally fresh S-SW winds are south of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle winds north of the monsoon trough. Moderate winds are noted in the Gulf of Papagayo. Slight to moderate seas prevail, highest in the offshores of southern Colombia. For the forecast, scattered showers and tstms will persist across the offshores through the weekend. Light to gentle winds will persist north of the monsoon trough. Winds will increase south of the monsoon trough to fresh through the weekend as the monsoon trough lifts northward to 10N, especially on Sat. This will result in slightly higher seas near the strongest winds. The monsoon trough will reach to near 12N by Tue night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure is across the waters north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough. Fresh to strong NE-E trades continue to prevail from 13N to 23N and west of 125W. Seas in this area remain in the 8-11 ft range in mixed NE wind waves and NW swell. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail elsewhere north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough to 25N and between 115W and 125W. Seas are 7-10 ft in primarily NW swell in this region. Gentle to moderate SE winds are south of the monsoon trough west of 120W with seas to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the remainder of the open waters along with mainly 4-6 ft seas. For the forecast, NW swell will continue to propagate across the northern waters into the weekend, reinforcing seas of 7-10 ft. The pressure gradient between the ridge W of Baja California and the monsoon/ITCZ will continue to support fresh to locally strong trades in the west-central waters through Sat. Seas will build up to near 12 ft as the wind waves combine with the NW swell. Weak low pressure and a reinforcing surge of fresh northerly winds will drop south of 30N between 125W and 135W today into Sat morning before the low and front remnants dissipate by Sat evening. Little change is expected elsewhere. Another weak cold front may drop south of 30N by early next week, ushering in large N swell. Otherwise, expect improved conditions for the end of the weekend into early next week. $$ AReinhart