000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040846 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Nov 4 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09N85W to 10N105W to 10N120W. The ITCZ continues from 10N120W to 09N130W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted N of 00N to 14N and E of 91W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 08N to 16N between 115W and 130W, and from 05N to 11N W of 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to locally strong winds continue along the Gulf of California north of 26N with seas to 3 ft. High pressure ridging extends from northwest to southeast across the remainder of the offshore waters. Moderate to fresh NW winds are N of Cabo San Lucas and along the Baja California offshore waters with locally strong winds close to the coast N of Cabo San Lazaro. Recent altimeter data show NW swell of 6-10 ft across the same area, highest north of Punta Eugenia. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are blowing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas to 5 ft. Gentle to moderate W to NW winds and 4-6 ft seas are across the remainder SW Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, northerly winds associated with a broad surface ridge will continue to funnel and support fresh to strong winds along the Gulf of California through Sat morning, then moderate to fresh NW winds will gradually diminish to gentle speeds through Sat evening. Fresh NW winds will prevail offshore Baja California through Sat morning, followed by winds and NW swell decay through Sat evening. An additional set of NW swell will propagate to the Baja California Norte offshore waters Sat evening and decay Sun evening. Otherwise, fresh N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish to gentle speeds this afternoon. A new Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is forecast to beging Mon evening and continue through Tue night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms are occurring from offshore Colombia NW to offshore El Salvador. Moderate to locally fresh S-SW winds are south of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle winds north of the monsoon trough, locally moderate to fresh in the Gulf of Papagayo. Slight to moderate seas dominate, highest offshore Ecuador and southern Colombia. For the forecast, scattered to numerous thunderstorms will persist offshore Colombia and Panama through tonight. Light to gentle winds will persist north of the monsoon trough. Winds will increase south of the monsoon trough to fresh at times through the weekend as the monsoon trough lifts northward to 10N, resulting in slightly higher seas south of it. The monsoon trough will then reach to near 12N by Tue night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure is across the waters north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough. Fresh to strong NE-E trades are noted from around 10N to 23N west of 125W with seas of 8-11 ft in mixed NE wind waves and NW swell. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough between 110W and 125W, along with seas of 7-10 ft in primarily NW swell. Moderate to locally fresh SE-S winds are south of the monsoon trough west of 125W, with seas of 6-8 ft. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the remainder of the open waters along with mainly 4-6 ft. For the forecast, NW swell will continue to propagate across the northern waters into the weekend, reinforcing seas of 7-10 ft. The pressure gradient between the ridge W of Bafa California and the monsoon/ITCZ will continue to support fresh to strong trades in the west-central waters through Fri night, with seas building to up to 10-12 ft as the wind waves combine with the NW swell. Weak low pressure and a reinforcing surge of fresh northerly winds will drop south of 30N between 125W and 135W tonight into Fri before dissipating. Little change is expected elsewhere. Another weak cold front may drop south of 30N by early next week, with associated and large N swell. Otherwise, expect improved conditions for the end of the weekend into early next week. $$ Ramos