000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040345 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Nov 4 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to 09N105W to 10N120W. The ITCZ continues from 10N120W to 10N130W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted N of 01N to 14N and E of 90W. Scattered moderate convection elsewhere from 10N to 17N between 109W and 130W, and from 04N to 14N W of 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong winds are occurring along the Gulf of California north of 27N due to funneling through gaps. Seas are 4-7 ft there, except to 8 ft near 30N. High pressure ridging extends from northwest to southeast across the remainder of the offshore waters. Moderate to fresh NW winds are N of Cabo San Lucas and along the Baja California offshore waters with locally strong winds close to the coast N of Cabo San Lazaron, including Punta Eugenia. NW swell of 6-9 ft is across the same area, highest north of Punta Eugenia. Fresh to strong northerly winds are blowing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and 4-6 ft seas are across the remainder SW Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, northerly winds associated with a broad surface ridge will continue to funnel and support fresh to strong winds in the northern Gulf of California through tonight. Moderate to fresh NW winds will spread down the entire Gulf of California south of 30N by early Fri, increasing to fresh to strong Fri evening through early Sat. Fresh to strong winds offshore Baja California Norte will spread south through early Fri afternoon as high pressure W of the area strengthens, with similar winds pulsing near Cabo Corrientes Fri evening into early Sat. NW swell will propagate across the waters offshore Baja California through Sat with occasional seas of 7-10 ft. Additional sets of NW swell will reinforce seas thereafter. Fresh to strong N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish early on Fri, then may return late Mon night through Tue night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scattered thunderstorms are occurring from offshore Colombia northward to offshore eastern Guatemala. Moderate to locally fresh S-SW winds are south of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle winds north of the monsoon trough, locally moderate in the Gulf of Papagayo. Slight to moderate seas dominate, highest offshore Ecuador and southern Colombia. For the forecast, scattered to numerous thunderstorms will persist offshore Colombia and Panama through tonight. light to gentle winds will persist north of the monsoon trough, locally fresh tonight in the Gulf of Papagayo. Winds will increase south of the monsoon trough to fresh at times through the weekend as the monsoon trough lifts northward to 10N, resulting in slightly higher seas south of it. The monsoon trough will then reach to 12N by Tue night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure is across the waters north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough. Fresh to strong NE-E trades are noted from around 09N to 25N west of 120W per recent ASCAT scatterometer data, with seas of 8-11 ft in mixed NE wind waves and NW swell. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough and west of 110W, along with seas of 7-10 ft in primarily NW swell. Moderate to locally fresh SE-S winds are south of the monsoon trough west of 125W, with seas of 6-8 ft. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the remainder of the open waters along with mainly 4-6 ft. For the forecast, NW swell will continue to propagate across the northern waters into the weekend, reinforcing seas of 7-10 ft. The pressure gradient will continue to support fresh to strong trades in the west-central waters through Fri night, with seas building to up to 10-12 ft as the wind waves combine with the NW swell. Weak low pressure and a reinforcing surge of fresh northerly winds will drop south of 30N between 125W and 135W tonight into Fri before dissipating. Little change is expected elsewhere. Another weak cold front may drop south of 30N by early next week, with associated and large N swell. Otherwise, expect improved conditions for the end of the weekend into early next week. $$ Ramos