000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031503 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Nov 3 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1420 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 10N84W to 09N102W to 10.5N115W to 10N123W. The ITCZ continues from 10N123W to beyond 07N140W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 77W and 83W, and from 06N to 11N between 129W and 140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 13.5N between 83W and 90W, and from 12N to 17N between 113W and 128W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A cold front that was moving over the northern Gulf of California and Baja California Norte has dissipated. Fresh to strong winds are occurring in the northern Gulf of California north of 29.5N due to funneling through gaps. Seas are 4-7 ft there. Moderate to fresh W-NW winds are in the central Gulf of California, with moderate winds in the southern Gulf of California. Seas are 2-4 ft in the central and southern Gulf of California. High pressure ridging extends from northwest to southeast across the remainder of the offshore waters. Moderate to fresh NW-N winds are from near Cabo Corrientes northward west of Baja California. NW swell of 6-10 ft is across the same area, highest north of Punta Eugenia. Fresh to strong northerly winds are blowing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas of 7-9 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and 4-6 ft seas are offshore Michoacan, Guerrero, and western Oaxaca. For the forecast, the pressure gradient and funneling winds will continue to support fresh to strong winds in the northern Gulf of California through tonight. Moderate to fresh NW winds will spread down the entire Gulf of California south of 30N by early Fri, increasing to fresh to strong Fri evening through early Sat. Fresh to strong winds will develop offshore Baja California this afternoon through early Fri afternoon as high pressure west of the area strengthens, with similar winds pulsing near Cabo Corrientes Fri evening into early Sat. NW swell will propagate across the waters offshore Baja California through Sat with occasional seas of 7-10 ft. Additional sets of NW swell will reinforce seas thereafter. Fresh to strong N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish late tonight, then may return late Mon night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Numerous thunderstorms are occurring offshore Colombia and Panama, with scattered activity from offshore Costa Rica northward to El Salvador. Mainly moderate S-SW winds are south of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle winds north of the monsoon trough, locally moderate in the Gulf of Papagayo. Slight to moderate seas dominate, highest offshore Ecuador and southern Colombia. For the forecast, scattered to numerous thunderstorms will persist offshore Colombia and Panama through tonight. light to gentle winds will persist north of the monsoon trough, locally fresh tonight in the Gulf of Papagayo. Winds will increase south of the monsoon trough to fresh at times through the weekend as the monsoon trough lifts northward to 10N, resulting in slightly higher seas south of it. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure is building in across the waters north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough in the wake of a cold front which dissipated over the northern waters overnight. Fresh to strong NE-E trades are noted from around 09N to 25N west of 125W with seas of 8-10 ft in mixed NE wind waves and NW swell. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewehre north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough and west of 110W, along with seas of 7-10 ft in NW swell. Moderate to locally fresh SE-S winds are south of the monsoon trough west of 120W, with seas of 6-8 ft. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the remainder of the open waters along with mainly 4-6 ft. For the forecast, NW swell will continue to propagate across the northern waters into the weekend, reinforcing seas of 7-10 ft. The pressure gradient will continue to support fresh to strong trades in the west-central waters through Fri night, with seas building to up to 10-12 ft as the wind waves combine with the NW swell. Weak low pressure and a reinforcing surge of fresh northerly winds will drop south of 30N between 125W and 135W tonight into Fri before dissipating. Little change is expected elsewhere. Another weak cold front may drop south of 30N by early next week, with associated and large N swell. Otherwise, expect improved conditions for the end of the weekend into early next week. $$ Lewitsky