000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030727 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Nov 3 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0715 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 09N84W to 10N111W. The ITCZ continues from 10N111W to 11N120W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 15N between 111W and 134W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A dissipating cold front has moved SE to about 30N in the northern Gulf of California overnight. Fresh to strong NW winds are occurring behind the front, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Lighter winds and lower seas are occurring across the remainder of the Gulf. The front extends SW across the waters off Baja California Norte. Moderate to fresh NW winds are occurring across Pacific waters behind it. A surface ridge extends across the remainder of the offshore waters of Mexico ahead of the front. Strong N-NE winds are blowing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas of 7 to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh NW-N winds are near Cabo Corrientes. Mainly gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 6-9 ft offshore Baja California, highest beyond 120 nm. Seas of 4-6 ft in mixed SW and NW swell prevail across the remainder of the waters. For the forecast, the pressure gradient will remain tight in the northern Gulf of California into tonight as a low pressure trough passes through, leading to fresh to strong winds. Increasing winds will spread down the remainder of the Gulf of California starting tonight. High pressure will build behind the trough with fresh to locally strong NW winds offshore Mexico, north of Cabo Corrientes through Fri. NW swell will propagate across the waters offshore Baja California through Fri night with occasional seas of 7-10 ft. Farther south, strong northerly gap winds in and near the Gulf of Tehuantepec will prevail into tonight. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scattered thunderstorms are occurring offshore Colombia. Mainly moderate winds are south of the monsoon trough with light to gentle winds north of the monsoon trough. Slight to moderate seas dominate. For the forecast, light to gentle winds will persist north of the monsoon trough. Winds will increase south of the monsoon trough to fresh at times through the weekend as the monsoon trough lifts northward to 10N, resulting in slightly higher seas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak cold front has devolved into a surface trough that extends from 26N115W to 23N127W. Some moderate N winds are still ongoing behind the front, but the highest winds, fresh to locally strong, are noted in the area of tight pressure gradient between the ITCZ and high pressure building in N and W of the trough, mainly between 10N and 25N, W of 127W. Seas behind the trough are 8 to 11 ft in northerly swell, with similar wave heights in the aforementioned higher wind area, due to a combination of wind waves and moderate northerly swell. Elsewhere across the waters, winds are gentle to moderate with seas of 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast, NW swell will continue to propagate across the northern waters into the weekend, reinforcing seas of 7-10 ft. The surface trough will dissipate by tonight, but the high pressure continuing to build S in its wake will lead to fresh to strong trades through Fri night, helping to build seas up to 11-12 ft combined with the NW swell in the west- central waters. Also, low pressure and a reinforcing surge of northerly winds will drop south of 30N between 125W and 135W tonight into Fri before dissipating. Expect improved conditions for the upcoming weekend. Little change is expected elsewhere. Another weak cold front may drop south of 30N by early next week, with associated N swell. $$ KONARIK