000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022021
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Nov 2 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1900 UTC.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 09N84W to
08N100W. The ITCZ continues from 08N100W to 12N108W to 12N122W to
08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 15N
between 110W and 118W, and from 06N to 09N between 131W and 
140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from northeast to southwest across the
northern Gulf of California. Fresh SW winds are increasing ahead
of the trough north of 30N along with 3-5 ft seas. Seas are 1-3 
ft across the remainder of the Gulf of California. A cold front
is moving across Baja California Norte extending west-southwest.
Moderate to fresh NW winds are arriving behind it. A surface 
ridge extends across the remainder of the offshore waters of 
Mexico ahead of the front. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are 
blowing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec per recent ASCAT scatterometer
data with seas of 5-8 ft. Moderate NW-N winds are near Cabo 
Corrientes. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail elsewhere.
Seas are 6-9 ft offshore Baja California, highest beyond 120 nm.
Seas of 4-6 ft in mixed SW and NW swell prevail across the 
remainder of the waters.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will increase in the 
northern Gulf of California through Thu night as low pressure and
a trough passes through the northern portion, leading to fresh 
to strong winds. Increasing winds will spread down the remainder 
of the Gulf of California starting Thu night. An associated cold 
front will move across the waters north of 20N tonight through
Thu while dissipating. High pressure will build behind the front
with fresh to locally strong NW winds offshore Mexico, north of 
Cabo Corrientes Thu into Fri night. A series of NW swell sets 
will propagate across the waters offshore Baja California through
Fri night with occasional seas of 7-10 ft. Farther south, strong
northerly gap winds in and near the Gulf of Tehuantepec will 
prevail through Thu night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
near the Gulf of Guayaquil, Ecuador offshore to 81W, and 
northward offshore Colombia with similar convection across nearby
land areas. Outside of any convection, mainly moderate winds are
south of the monsoon trough with light to gentle winds north of
the monsoon trough. Seas are slight to moderate seas dominate.

For the forecast, scattered thunderstorms will be possible 
through tonight offshore Ecuador and Colombia, including near the
Gulf of Guayaquil. Light to gentle winds will persist north of 
the monsoon trough with gentle to moderate winds south of the 
monsoon trough through tonight. Winds will increase south of the 
monsoon trough to fresh at times Thu through the weekend as the 
monsoon trough lifts northward to 10N resulting in slightly 
higher seas. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front extends from 30N118W to 26.5N130W to 29N140W. 
Moderate to fresh northerly winds are behind the front along with
reinforcing 7-10 ft NW swell. Ridging extends across the waters 
north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ and ahead of the front, with 
moderate to locally fresh trades west of about 120W. Seas are 7-9
ft in mixed NE wind waves and NW swell elsewhere north of 20N, 
and 6-7 ft across the remainder of the waters west of 105W. 
Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere, with 4-6 ft seas east
of 105W.

For the forecast, a series of NW swell sets will continue to
propagate across the northern waters into the weekend, with each
set reinforcing seas of 7-10 ft. A weakening cold front will 
push eastward mainly north of 25N through Thu, with high 
pressure building in behind it west of 120W. This pattern will 
lead to fresh to strong trades Wed night through Fri night, 
helping to build seas up to 11-12 ft combined with the NW swell 
in the west-central waters. Also, low pressure and a reinforcing
surge of northerly winds will drop south of 30N between 125W and
135W Thu night into Fri before dissipating. Expect improved 
conditions for the upcoming weekend. Little change is expected 
elsewhere. Another weak cold front may drop south of 30N by early
next week.

$$
Lewitsky