000 AXPZ20 KNHC 021452 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Nov 2 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1420 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 09N84W to 08N102W to 10N115W to 09N120W. The ITCZ continues from 09N120W to beyond 07.5N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 15N between 110W and 120W, from 09N to 11N between 125W and 130W, and from 06N to 09N between 130W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from northeast to southwest across the northern Gulf of California. Fresh to strong SW winds are just ahead of the trough north of 30N along with 3-5 ft seas. Seas are 1-3 ft across the remainder of the Gulf of California. A surface ridge extends from northwest to southeast across the remainder of the offshore waters of Mexico. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are blowing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas of 5-8 ft. Moderate NW-N winds are near Cabo Corrientes. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 6-9 ft offshore Baja California, highest beyond 120 nm. Seas of 4-6 ft in mixed SW and NW swell prevail across the remainder of the waters. For the forecast, the pressure gradient will increase in the northern Gulf of California through Thu night as low pressure passes north of the area, leading to fresh to strong winds. Increasing winds will spread down the remainder of the Gulf of California starting Thu night. An associated cold front will move across the waters north of 20N beginning today while dissipating. High pressure will build behind the front with fresh to locally strong NW winds offshore Mexico, north of Cabo Corrientes Thu into Fri night. A series of NW swell sets will propagate across the waters offshore Baja California through Fri night with occasional seas of 7-10 ft. Farther south, strong northerly gap winds in and near the Gulf of Tehuantepec will prevail through Thu night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from near the Gulf of Guayaquil, Ecuador offshore to 81W, and northward offshore Colombia with similar convection across nearby land areas. Outside of any convection, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas dominate. For the forecast, gentle winds and slight to moderate seas will persist across the region through tonight. Southerly flow will increase some south of the monsoon trough Thu through the weekend with slightly higher seas. By the weekend, locally fresh winds are possible as the monsoon trough lifts northward to 10N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front extends from 30N120W to 27N130W to 29N140W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are behind the front along with reinforcing 7-10 ft NW swell. Ridging extends across the waters north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ and ahead of the front, with moderate to locally fresh trades west of 120W. Seas are 7-10 ft in mixed NE wind waves and NW swell north of 20N, and 6-7 ft elsewhere west of 105W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere, with 4-6 ft seas east of 105W. For the forecast, a series of NW swell sets will continue to propagate across the northern waters into the weekend, with each set reinforcing seas of 7-10 ft. A weakening cold front will push eastward mainly north of 28N through Thu, with high pressure building in behind it west of 120W. This pattern will lead to fresh to strong trades Wed night through Fri night, helping to build seas up to 11-12 ft combined with the NW swell in the west-central waters. Also, low pressure and a reinforcing surge of northerly winds will drop south of 30N between 125W and 135W Thu night into Fri before dissipating. Expect improved conditions for the upcoming weekend. Little change is expected elsewhere. $$ Lewitsky