000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020730
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Nov 2 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0730 UTC.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 10N84W to 
11N118W to 08N134W. The ITCZ continues from 08N134W to 07N140W. 
Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N 
to 15N between 113W and 130W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends across the offshore waters. Wave 
heights of 7-9 ft due to northerly swell are present beyond 120 
to 250 nm off the Baja California coast, north of Cabo San 
Lazaro. Farther south, N winds have increased to strong overnight 
over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Fresh S winds are also occurring 
in the northern Gulf of California. Light to gentle breezes and 
slight to moderate seas dominate elsewhere offshore Mexico. 

For the forecast, one set of northerly swell currently impacting
waters offshore Baja California will be reinforced by another
starting today, which will continue seas of 9 to 11 ft through 
Fri night. Farther S, strong N gap winds in and near the Gulf of
Tehuantepec will prevail through Thu night. The pressure 
gradient will increase in the northern Gulf of California through
Thu night as low pressure passes north of the area, leading to 
fresh to strong winds. Increasing winds will spread down the 
remainder of the Gulf of California starting Thu night. Fresh to
locally strong NW winds will develop behind a cold front 
offshore Mexico, N of Cabo Corrientes Thu and prevail into Fri 
night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas dominate. A few
thunderstorms are noted just offshore Colombia. 

For the forecast, gentle winds and slight to moderate seas will
persist across the region into Thu. Southerly flow will increase
some south of the monsoon trough Thu through the weekend with
slightly higher seas. By the weekend, locally fresh winds are
possible. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Ridging extends across the waters north of the monsoon trough
with moderate to locally fresh trades west of 120W. Seas are 
7-10 ft in NW swell north of 20N, and 6-7 ft elsewhere west of 
108W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere, with 4-6 ft 
seas east of 108W.

For the forecast, a series of NW swell sets will continue to
propagate across the northern waters into the weekend, with each
set reinforcing seas of 7-10 ft. A weakening cold front will 
push eastward mainly north of 28N through Thu, with high 
pressure building in behind it west of 120W. This pattern will 
lead to fresh to strong trades Wed night through Fri night, 
helping to build seas up to 11-12 ft combined with the NW swell 
in the west- central waters. Expect improved conditions for the 
start of the weekend. Little change is expected elsewhere.

$$
KONARIK