000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020244 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Nov 2 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 10N84W to 1008 mb low pressure near 11N118W to 08N140W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 15N between 113W and 130W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is evident from 08N to 10N between 134W and 136W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends across the offshore waters. Wave heights of 7-10 ft due to northerly swell are present beyond 120 to 250 nm off the Baja California coast, north of Cabo San Lazaro. Farther south, N winds have increased to fresh this evening over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Fresh SE winds are also occurring in the northern Gulf of California. Light to gentle breezes and slight to moderate seas dominate elsewhere offshore Mexico. For the forecast, one set of northerly swell currently impacting waters offshore Baja California will be reinforced by another starting Wed, which will continue seas of 9 to 11 ft through Fri night. Farther S, fresh to strong N gap winds in and near the Gulf of Tehuantepec will prevail through Thu night. The pressure gradient will increase in the northern Gulf of California this evening through Thu night as low pressure passes north of the area, leading to fresh to locally strong winds. Increasing winds will spread down the remainder of the Gulf of California starting Thu. Fresh to locally strong NW winds will develop behind a cold front offshore Mexico, N of Cabo Corrientes Thu and prevail through Fri night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle southerly flow continues offshore southern Colombia and Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere. Seas are slight to moderate across the waters. For the forecast, gentle winds and slight to moderate seas will persist across the region into Thu. Southerly flow will increase some south of the monsoon trough Thu through the weekend with slightly higher seas. By the weekend, locally fresh winds are possible. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Ridging extends across the waters north of the monsoon trough with moderate to locally fresh trades west of 120W. Seas are 7-10 ft in NW swell north of 20N, and 6-7 ft elsewhere west of 108W. A 1008 mb low pressure area is embedded in the monsoon trough. Associated convection is described in the monsoon trough section above. Moderate to fresh winds are on the NW-N side of the low. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere, with 4-6 ft seas east of 108W. For the forecast, a series of NW swell sets will continue to propagate across the northern waters through the end of the week and into the weekend, with each set reinforcing seas of 7-10 ft. A weakening cold front will push eastward mainly north of 28N tonight through Thu, with high pressure building in behind it west of 120W. This pattern will lead to fresh to strong trades Wed night through Fri night, helping to build seas up to 11-12 ft combined with the NW swell in the west-central waters. Expect improved conditions for the start of the weekend. Little change is expected elsewhere. $$ KONARIK