000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012014
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Nov 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1930 UTC.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 10N84W to 1010 mb
low pressure near 11N118W to 08.5N140W. Numerous moderate 
isolated strong convection is noted within 13N113W to 08N113W to 
07N130W to 10N127W to 13N113W. Scattered moderate and isolated 
strong convection is evident from 13N to 17N between 110W and 
116W, and from 08N to 10N between 134W and 136W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends across the offshore waters. Wave 
heights of 7-10 ft due to northerly swell are present beyond 120
to 250 nm off the Baja California coast, north of Cabo San Lazaro.
Farther south, moderate to locally fresh northerly gap winds are
pulsing this afternoon across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Moderate
SE winds have developed in the northern Gulf of California. 
Light to gentle breezes and slight to moderate seas dominate 
elsewhere offshore Mexico. 

For the forecast, sets of northerly swell will continue to
propagate offshore Baja California through the start of the
upcoming weekend, with wave heights of up to 10-11 ft. Farther 
south, fresh to strong northerly winds will develop in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec this evening and pulse through early Fri. The 
pressure gradient will increase in the northern Gulf of 
California this evening into Thu night as low pressure passes 
north of the area, leading to fresh to locally strong winds. 
Increasing winds will spread down the remainder of the Gulf of 
California starting Wed night. Moderate to fresh NW-N winds, 
locally strong, will develop offshore Mexico from near Cabo 
Corrientes northward starting Thu into early Sat as a cold front
moves through the region. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to locally moderate southerly flow continues offshore
southern Colombia and Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. Light to
gentle winds are elsewhere. Seas are slight to moderate across
the waters.

For the forecast, gentle to locally moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas will persist across the region into Thu. Southerly
flow will increase some south of the monsoon trough Thu through 
the weekend with slightly higher seas.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Ridging extends across the waters north of the monsoon trough
with moderate to locally fresh trades west of 120W per recent
ASCAT scatterometer data. Seas are 7-10 ft in NW swell north of 
20N, and 6-7 ft elsewhere west of 106W. A 1010 mb low pressure 
area is embedded in the monsoon trough. Associated convection is
described above. Moderate to fresh winds are on the NW-N side 
of the low. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere, with 4-6
ft seas east of 110W.

For the forecast, a series of NW swell sets will continue to
propagate across the northern waters through the end of the week
and into the weekend, with each set reinforcing seas of 7-10 ft.
A weakening cold front will push eastward mainly north of 28N 
tonight into Thu, with high pressure building in behind it west 
of 120W. This pattern will lead to fresh to locally strong trades
Wed night through Fri night, helping to build seas up to 11-12 
ft combined with the NW swell in the west-central waters. Expect 
improved conditions for the start of the weekend. Little change 
is expected elsewhere.

$$
Lewitsky