000 AXPZ20 KNHC 011512 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Nov 1 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1455 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the Gulf of Papagayo near 11N86W to 09.5N93W to 12N113W to 1010 mb low pressure near 11N117W to 1008 mb low pressure near 09N127W to 08N140W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 113W and 119W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is evident from 07N to 10N between 120W and 131W, and from 13.5N to 15.5N between 110W and 117W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends across the offshore waters. Wave heights of 7-9 ft due to northerly swell are present beyond 120 to 250 nm off the Baja California coast, north of Punta Eugenia. Farther south, moderate to locally fresh northerly gap winds are pulsing this morning across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle breezes and slight to moderate seas dominate elsewhere offshore Mexico, including in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, northerly swell will build offshore Baja California today, with wave heights of up to 10 ft mainly N of Cabo San Lazaro through the end of the week. Farther south, moderate to fresh northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec today, then increase to fresh to strong tonight into early Fri. The pressure gradient will increase in the northern Gulf of California this evening into Thu night as low pressure passes north of the area, leading to fresh to locally strong winds. Increasing winds will spread down the remainder of the Gulf of California starting Wed night. Moderate to fresh NW-N winds, locally strong, will develop offshore Mexico from near Cabo Corrientes northward starting Thu as a cold front moves through the region. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to locally moderate southerly flow continues offshore southern Colombia and Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere. Seas are slight to moderate across the waters. For the forecast, gentle to locally moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist across the region into Thu. SW flow will increase some south of the monsoon trough Thu through the weekend with slightly higher seas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Ridging extends across the waters north of the monsoon trough with moderate trades west of 120W. Seas are 7-10 ft in NW swell north of 25N, and 6-7 ft elsewhere west of 110W. A pair of low pressure areas are embedded in the monsoon trough and are described more in the monsoon trough section. Moderate to fresh winds are on the NW-N side of each low. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere, with 4-6 ft seas east of 110W. For the forecast, a series of NW swell sets will continue to propagate across the northern waters through the end of the week and into the weekend, with each set reinforcing seas of 7-10 ft. A weakening cold front will push eastward mainly north of 28N today into Thu, with high pressure building in behind it west of 120W. This pattern will lead to fresh to locally strong trades Wed night through Fri night, helping to build seas up to 11 ft combined with the NW swell in the west-central waters. Expect improved conditions for the start of the weekend. Little change is expected elsewhere. $$ Lewitsky