000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010145
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Nov 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0130 UTC.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 10N85W to 10N100W
to 09N123W. The ITCZ extends from 09N123W to 10N140W. Scattered 
moderate and isolated strong convection is evident from 07N to 
12N between 125W and 135W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends across the offshore waters. Wave 
heights of 7-8 ft due to northerly swell are present beyond 120 
to 250 nm off the Baja California coast, north of Cabo San 
Lazaro. Farther south, moderate to locally fresh northerly gap 
winds are pulsing tonight across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light 
to gentle breezes and slight to moderate seas dominate elsewhere 
offshore Mexico, including in the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, after a brief lull tonight, northerly swell 
starting Tue will maintain wave heights to up to 10 ft off Baja 
California through the remainder of the week, mainly N of Cabo 
San Lazaro. Farther south, moderate to fresh northerly winds will
pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, increasing to fresh to strong 
Tue night into early Fri. The pressure gradient will increase in 
the northern Gulf of California Tue evening into Thu night as low
pressure passes north of the area, leading to fresh to locally 
strong winds. Increasing winds will spread down the remainder of 
the Gulf of California starting Wed night. Moderate to fresh NW-N
winds, locally strong, will develop offshore Mexico from near 
Cabo Corrientes northward starting Thu night as a cold front 
moves through the region..

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to locally moderate southerly flow continues into the 
monsoon trough south of Costa Rica and Panama with generally 
moderate wave heights in this area. Light to gentle winds are 
elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, with slight to moderate 
seas.

For the forecast, gentle to locally moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas will persist across the region into Thu. SW flow 
will increase some south of the monsoon trough Thu through the 
weekend with slightly higher seas.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Mostly moderate N-NE trades winds are occurring north of the 
monsoon trough/ITCZ and west of 120W, with northerly swell 
leading to seas of 7-9 ft. Moderate SE-S winds are occurring 
south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ and west of 120W with 5 to 7 ft 
seas. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate wave heights are 
noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, a series of NW swell sets will continue to
propagate across the northern waters through the end of the week
and into the weekend, with each set reinforcing seas of 7-10 ft.
A decaying cold front will push eastward mainly N of 28N tonight
through Wed night, with strong high pressure building in behind 
it west of 120W. This pattern will lead to fresh to locally 
strong trades Wed night through Fri night. Expect improved 
conditions for the start of the weekend. Little change is 
expected elsewhere.

$$
KONARIK