000
AXPZ20 KNHC 311949
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Oct 31 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1900 UTC.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 10N85W to 08N92W
to 11N107W to 09N123W. The ITCZ extends from 09N123W to 10N140W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is evident 
from 07N to 12N between 127W and 130W. Scattered moderate 
convection is evident from 08N to 11N between 110W and 122W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends across the offshore waters. Wave 
heights of 7-9 ft due to northerly swell are present beyond 120 
to 250 nm off the Baja California coast, north of Cabo San 
Lazaro. Farther south, moderate to fresh northerly gap winds 
are diminishing across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, as the pressure 
gradient in the western Gulf of Mexico is weakening. Light to
gentle breezes and slight to moderate seas dominate elsewhere 
offshore Mexico, including in the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, northerly swell will maintain wave heights to 
up to 10 ft off Baja California through the remainder of the 
week, mainly north of Cabo San Lazaro. Farther south, moderate to
fresh northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 
increasing to fresh to strong Tue night through early Fri. The 
pressure gradient will increase in the northern Gulf of 
California Tue evening through Thu night as low pressure passes 
north of the area, leading to fresh to locally strong winds. 
Moderate to fresh NW-N winds, locally strong, will develop 
offshore Mexico from near Cabo Corrientes northward by the end of
the week as a cold front moves through the region.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to locally moderate southerly flow continues into the 
monsoon trough south of Costa Rica and Panama with generally 
moderate wave heights in this area. Moderate offshore winds are 
in the Gulf of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere
north of the monsoon trough, with slight to moderate seas.

For the forecast, gentle to locally moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas will persist across the region into late week. SW
flow will increase some south of the monsoon trough Thu into the
weekend with slightly higher seas.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Mostly moderate N-NE trades winds are occurring north of the 
monsoon trough/ITCZ and west of 120W, with northerly swell 
leading to seas of 7-10 ft. Moderate SE-S winds are occurring 
south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ and west of 120W with 5 to 7 ft 
seas. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate wave heights are 
noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, a series of NW swell sets will continue to
propagate across the northern waters through the end of the week
and into the weekend, with each set reinforcing seas of 7-10 ft.
A decaying cold front will push just south of 30N through mid 
week with strong high pressure building in behind it west of 
120W. This pattern will lead to fresh to locally strong trades 
Wed night through Fri night. Expect improved conditions for the 
start of the weekend. Little change is expected elsewhere.

$$
Lewitsky