000
AXPZ20 KNHC 311422
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Oct 31 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1400 UTC.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica border near 10N84W to
08N92W to 11N108W to 09N127W. The ITCZ extends from 09N127W to
10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is 
evident from 08N to 11.5N between 110W and 121W, and from 08N to
12N between 126W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends across the offshore waters. Wave heights
of 8-10 ft due to northerly swell are present beyond 120 to 250 
nm off the Baja California coast, north of Cabo San Lazaro. 
Moderate NW to N winds are occurring in this area. Farther south,
moderate to fresh northerly gap winds are diminishing across the
Gulf of Tehuantepec, as the pressure gradient in the western 
Gulf of Mexico is weakening, with seas of 4-6 ft in this area. 
Gentle breezes and slight to moderate seas dominate elsewhere 
offshore Mexico, including in the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, northerly swell will maintain wave heights to 
10 ft off Baja California through the remainder of the week, 
mainly north of Cabo San Lazaro. Farther south, moderate to fresh
northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, increasing
to fresh to strong Tue evening through early Fri. Looking ahead,
the pressure gradient will increase in the northern Gulf of 
California Tue evening through Thu as low pressure passes north 
of the area, leading to fresh to locally strong winds. Moderate
to fresh NW-N winds, locally strong, will develop offshore Mexico
from near Cabo Corrientes northward.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to locally moderate southerly flow continues into the 
monsoon trough south of Costa Rica and Panama with generally 
moderate wave heights in this area. Moderate to fresh offshore
winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo. Slight to moderate seas are 
elsewhere north of the monsoon trough off northern Central 
America.

For the forecast, gentle to locally moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas will persist across the region into late week. SW
flow will increase some south of the monsoon trough through Thu,
then locally fresh south of the monsoon trough thereafter along 
with slightly higher seas.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Mostly moderate to locally fresh N-NE trades winds are occurring
north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ and west of 118W, with 
northerly swell leading to seas of 8-10 ft. Moderate to locally 
fresh SE winds are also occurring south of the monsoon 
trough/ITCZ and west of 120W with 5 to 7 ft seas. Gentle to 
moderate winds and moderate wave heights are noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the northerly swell will mostly decay below 8
ft tonight, except for north of 25N where reinforcing northerly 
swell will maintain combined seas of 8-10 ft. The new 
reinforcing swell will propagate across the waters north of 10N 
and west of 120W into late week. Trade wind flow will increase in
this area as well while the subtropical ridge builds following a
weak cold front that moves eastward across the waters north of 
25N tonight through Wed. Little change is expected elsewhere.

$$
Lewitsky