000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310808
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Oct 31 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0730 UTC.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the Panama-Costa Rica border near
09N81W to 10N119W. The ITCZ extends from 10N119W to 11N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is evident from 08N to 12N between 
109W and 115W. Scattered moderate convection has also developed
from 08N to 12N between 130W and 140W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from 1026 mb high pressure near 31N134W 
to south of Cabo San Lucas. Wave heights of 8 to 9 ft due to 
northerly swell are present beyond 120 to 150 nm off the Baja 
California coast, north of Cabo San Lazaro. Moderate NW to N 
winds are occurring in this area. Farther south, fresh to 
locally strong northerly gap winds are diminishing across the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec, as the high pressure in western Gulf of 
Mexico begins to weaken and move east. Gentle breezes and slight
to moderate seas dominate elsewhere off southern Mexico and in 
the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, northerly swell will maintain wave heights to 
10 ft off Baja California through late week, mainly north of Cabo
San Lazaro. Farther south, fresh northerly gap winds will
diminish today, but another round of strong gap winds and rough 
seas are likely in the Gulf of Tehuantepec starting Tue night. 
Looking ahead, the pressure gradient will increase in the 
northern Gulf of California Wed night through Thu as low pressure
passes N of the area, leading to fresh to locally strong winds.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to locally moderate southerly flow continues into the 
monsoon trough south of Costa Rica and Panama with generally 
moderate wave heights in this area. Slight to moderate seas are 
north of the monsoon trough off northern Central America.

For the forecast, gentle to locally moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas will persist across the region into late week. SW
flow will increase some S of the monsoon trough for the end of
the week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Mostly moderate NE trades winds are occurring north of the 
monsoon trough/ITCZ and west of 120W, with northerly swell
leading to seas of 8 to 9 ft. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds
are also occurring south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ and west of 
120W with 5 to 7 ft seas. Farther east, a trough is analyzed 
along 109W from 12N to 14N and a weak 1012 mb low pressure center
has evolved on the SW edge of this trough near 11N110W. Moderate
NE winds west of the trough are providing enough low level 
convergence to support scattered moderate showers and 
thunderstorms along the monsoon trough from 08N to 12N between 
109W and 115W. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate wave heights
are noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the northerly swell will mostly decay below 8
ft tonight, except for north of 30N where reinforcing northerly 
swell will maintain combined seas to 8 ft. The new reinforcing 
swell will propagate across the waters north of 10N and west of 
120W into late week. Trade wind flow will increase in this area 
as well while the subtropical ridge builds following a weak cold 
front that moves eastward across the waters north of 25N tonight 
through Wed. Little change is expected elsewhere.

$$
KONARIK