000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310130
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Oct 31 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0130 UTC.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 
10N84W to 10N120W. The ITCZ extends from 10N120W to 11N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is evident from 08N to 12N between
109W and 115W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from 1027 mb high pressure near 31N134W 
to south of Cabo San Lucas. Wave heights of 8 to 9 ft due to 
northerly swell are present beyond 120 to 150 nm off the Baja 
California coast, north of Cabo San Lazaro. Moderate NW to N 
winds are occurring in this area. Farther south, fresh to strong
northerly gap winds continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 
associated with a cool airmass north of the area covering the 
western Gulf of Mexico. Seas are estimated to be near 8 ft in 
this area. Gentle breezes and slight to moderate seas dominate 
elsewhere off southern Mexico and in the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, northerly swell will maintain wave heights to 
10 ft off Baja California into late week, mainly north of Cabo 
San Lazaro. Farther south, strong northerly gap winds and rough 
seas are diminishing, but another round of strong gap winds and 
rough seas are likely in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Wed. Looking 
ahead, the pressure gradient will increase in the northern Gulf 
of California Wed night into Thu as low pressure passes N of the 
area, leading to fresh to locally strong winds.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to locally southerly flow continues into the monsoon 
trough south of Costa Rica and Panama with generally moderate 
wave heights in this area. Slight to moderate seas are north of 
the monsoon trough off northern Central America.

For the forecast, gentle to locally moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas will persist across the region into late week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Mostly moderate NE trades winds are occurring north of the 
monsoon trough/ITCZ and west of 120W, with northerly swell
leading to seas of 8 to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh SE winds are also
occurring south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ and west of 120W with
5 to 7 ft seas. Farther east, a trough is analyzed along 109W 
from 12N to 14N. Moderate NE winds west of the trough are 
providing enough low level convergence to support scattered 
moderate showers and thunderstorms along the monsoon trough from 
08N to 12N between 109W and 115W. Gentle to moderate winds and 
moderate wave heights are noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the northerly swell will mostly decay below 8
ft Mon night, except for north of 30N where reinforcing 
northerly swell will maintain combined seas to 8 ft. The new 
reinforcing swell will propagate across the waters north of 10N 
and west of 120W through mid week. Trade wind flow will increase 
in this area as well while the subtropical ridge builds following
a weak cold front that moves eastward across the waters north of
25N Mon through Wed. Little change is expected elsewhere.

$$
KONARIK