000 AXPZ20 KNHC 302115 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Oct 30 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N84W to 10N120W. The ITCZ extends from 10N120W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 10N to 12N between 110W and 113W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from 1027 mb high pressure near 31N134W to south of Cabo San Lucas. A recent ship observation confirmed wave heights have increased off Baja California Norte as northerly swell moves into the region. Wave heights of 8 to 9 ft due to northerly swell are present beyond 120 to 150 nm off the Baja California coast, north of Cabo San Lazaro. The ship observation and a 17 UTC scatterometer satellite pass also indicated moderate NW to N winds in this area. Farther south, a 1630 UTC scatterometer satellite pass showed fresh to strong northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, associated with a cool airmass north of the area covering the western Gulf of Mexico. The satellite pass showed fresh to strong winds within 45 nm of the coast, and moderate gap winds reaching as far as 180 nm downstream. Seas are estimated to be near 8 ft in this area. Gentle breezes and slight to moderate seas dominate elsewhere off southern Mexico and in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, northerly swell will maintain wave heights to 10 ft off Baja California through mid week, mainly north of Cabo San Lazaro. Farther south, strong northerly gap winds and rough seas are diminishing, but another round of strong gap winds and rough seas are likely in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by mid week. Looking ahead, additional large swell will move into the waters off Baja California Norte by late Wed, reinforcing the swell moving into the region currently through Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle southerly flow continues into the monsoon trough south of Costa Rica and Panama with generally moderate wave heights in this area. Slight to moderate seas are north of the monsoon trough off northern Central America. A pulse of moderate east winds has moved offshore in the Papagayo region and adjacent portions of the Nicaraguan offshore waters. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist across the region through late week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Recent scatterometer passes indicate mostly moderate NE trade winds north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ and west of 120W. Altimeter passes confirm 8 to 9 ft seas over most of this area, largely due to northerly swell. The satellite data also shows moderate to fresh SE winds south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ and west of 120W with 5 to 7 ft seas. Farther east, a trough is analyzed along 108W from 12N to 14N. Moderate NE winds west of the trough are providing enough low level convergence to support scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms along the monsoon trough from 10N to 12N between 110W and 113W. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate wave heights are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the northerly swell will mostly decay below 8 ft through Mon night, except for north of 30N where reinforcing northerly swell will maintain combined seas to 8 ft. The new reinforcing swell will propagate across the waters north of 10N and west of 120W through mid week. Trade wind flow will increase in this area as well while the subtropical ridge builds following a weak cold front that moves eastward across the waters north of 25N Mon through Wed. Little change is expected elsewhere. $$ Christensen