000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301558
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Oct 30 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 
09N84W to a 08N95W to 12N105W to 10N120W. The ITCZ extends from
10N120W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from
09N to 11N between 105W and 125W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from 1026 mb high pressure near 32N133W 
to south of Cabo San Lucas. The moderate pressure gradient as the
result of the ridge and lower pressures over northern Mexico 
supports moderate NW winds offshore Baja California. Peak seas 
are 7 to 9 ft, highest W of Guadalupe Island. Moderate NW to N 
winds are occurring in the Gulf of California with seas of 2 to 4
ft. Strong gap winds have developed in the Tehunatepec region in
response to building high pressure in the western Gulf of 
Mexico. Light to gentle winds are found over the rest of the area
with 2 to 4 ft seas.

For the forecast, northerly swell will maintain wave heights of 
8 to 9 ft off Baja California through mid week, mainly north of 
Cabo San Lazaro. Farther south, strong northerly gap winds and 
rough seas will diminish today. Another round of strong gap winds
and rough seas are likely in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by mid 
week. Looking ahead, additional large swell will move into the 
waters off Baja California Norte by late Wed, reinforcing the 
swell moving into the region currently. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle southerly flow continues into the monsoon trough south of
Costa Rica and Panama with generally moderate wave heights in 
this area. Slight to moderate seas are north of the monsoon 
trough off northern Central America. A pulse of moderate east
winds has moved offshore in the Papagayo region and adjacent
portions of the Nicaraguan offshore waters.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to 
moderate seas will persist across the region through late week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge over the 
north Pacific and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustains 
moderate to fresh easterly winds north of the monsoon 
trough/ITCZ to 20N, and west of 120W. Moderate to locally fresh N
winds have moved S of 30N to between 115W and 125W. Northerly 
swell N of 28N is inducing seas of 8 to 9 ft. Elsewhere, wave 
heights are 5 to 7 ft, north of the ITCZ, although may be 
reaching as high as 8 ft near 15N135W where fresh winds are 
following the passage of the tropical wave. Moderate to locally 
fresh SE to S winds occurring south of the ITCZ. Gentle to 
moderate winds and moderate seas persist east of 120W.

For the forecast, the fresh NE to E trade winds will expand
westward today following the tropical wave that will move west 
of the region. The northerly swell to 8 to 9 ft will continue to
propagate southward, staying mainly north of 20N, but mixing 
with the shorter period wind waves from 12N to 20N west of 130W 
into late week. Farther east, gentle to moderate winds and 
moderate seas will persist. Looking ahead, expect fresh to strong
trade winds and rough seas north of 10N and west of 130W 
starting Wed as high pressure builds north of the region.

$$
Christensen