000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300731
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Oct 30 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 136W south of 15N, moving W 
at 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is evident.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 08N78W
to a 1011 mb low pressure area off Costa Rica near 09N85W to 
09N120W. The ITCZ extends from 09N120W to 08N134W. Scattered
moderate convection has developed from 08N to 12N between 104W
and 112W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from 1027 mb high pressure near 33N128W 
to south of Cabo San Lucas. The moderate pressure gradient as the
result of the ridge and lower pressures over northern Mexico 
supports moderate NW winds offshore Baja California. Peak seas 
are 7 to 9 ft, highest W of Guadalupe Island. Moderate NW to N 
winds are occurring in the Gulf of California with seas of 2 to 4
ft. Strong gap winds have developed in the Tehunatepec region in
response to building high pressure in the western Gulf of Mexico.
Light to gentle winds are found over the rest of the area with 2
to 4 ft seas.

For the forecast, wave heights will increase off Baja California
today, then remain around 8 to 10 ft much of the week as several
rounds of northern swell propagate into the area. Farther south,
strong northerly gap winds and rough seas will prevail today in 
the Tehuantepec region, before conditions begin to improve 
tonight.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle southerly flow continues into the monsoon trough south of
Costa Rica and Panama with generally moderate wave heights in 
this area. Slight to moderate seas are north of the monsoon 
trough off northern Central America. A pulse of moderate east
winds has moved offshore in the Papagayo region and adjacent
portions of the Nicaraguan offshore waters.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to 
moderate seas will persist across the region through late week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge over the 
north Pacific and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustains 
moderate to fresh easterly winds north of the monsoon 
trough/ITCZ to 20N, and west of 120W. Moderate to locally fresh N
winds have moved S of 30N to between 115W and 125W. Northerly 
swell N of 28N is inducing seas of 8 to 9 ft. Elsewhere, wave 
heights are 5 to 7 ft, north of the ITCZ, although may be 
reaching as high as 8 ft near 15N135W where fresh winds are 
following the passage of the tropical wave. Moderate to locally 
fresh SE to S winds occurring south of the ITCZ. Gentle to 
moderate winds and moderate seas persist east of 120W.

For the forecast, the fresh NE to E trade winds will expand
westward today following the tropical wave that will move west 
of the region. The northerly swell to 8 to 9 ft will continue to
propagate southward, staying mainly north of 20N, but mixing 
with the shorter period wind waves from 12N to 20N west of 130W 
into late week. Farther east, gentle to moderate winds and 
moderate seas will persist. Looking ahead, expect fresh to strong
trade winds and rough seas north of 10N and west of 130W 
starting Wed as high pressure builds north of the region.

$$
KONARIK