000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300204
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Oct 30 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 134W south of 15N, moving W 
at 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is evident.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 08N78W
to a weak 1011 mb low pressure area off Costa Rica near 09N85W 
to 09N120W. The ITCZ extends from 09N120W to 08N132W. No 
significant convection is evident.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from 1026 mb high pressure near 33N127W 
to south of Cabo San Lucas. The moderate pressure gradient as 
the result of the ridge and lower pressures over northern Mexico 
supports moderate NW winds offshore Baja California. Peak seas
are 7 to 9 ft, highest W of Guadalupe Island. Moderate to 
locally fresh NW to N winds are occurring in the Gulf of 
California with seas of 2 to 4 ft. Fresh to locally strong gap
winds are developing in the Tehuantepec region, in response to a
cold front and building high pressure in the western Gulf of
Mexico. Light to gentle winds are found over the rest of the 
area with 2 to 4 ft seas.

For the forecast, wave heights will increase off Baja California
Norte tonight and persist through late next week as northerly 
swell enters the region. Wave heights may be as high as 8 to 10 
ft, and continue southward off Baja California Sur as far as Cabo
San Lazaro tonight. Farther south, expect strong to near-gale 
gap winds and rough seas through Sun as an early season cold 
front moves through the western Gulf of Mexico and across the 
Tehuantepec isthmus. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle southerly flow continues into the monsoon trough south of
Costa Rica and Panama with generally moderate wave heights in 
this area. Slight to moderate seas are north of the monsoon 
trough off northern Central America. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to 
moderate seas will persist across the region through late next 
week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge over the 
north Pacific and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustains 
moderate to fresh easterly winds north of the monsoon 
trough/ITCZ to 20N, and west of 120W. Northerly swell N of 28N is
inducing seas of 8 to 9 ft. Elsewhere, wave heights are 5 to 7 
ft, north of the ITCZ, although may be reaching as high as 8 ft 
near 15N130W where fresh winds are following the passage of the 
tropical wave. Moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds occurring 
south of the ITCZ. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas 
persist east of 120W.

For the forecast, the fresh NE to E trade winds will expand
westward Sun following tropical wave will move west of the 
region. The northerly swell to 8 ft will continue to propagate
southward, staying mainly north of 20N, but mixing with the
shorter period wind waves from 12N to 20N west of 130W through
mid week. Farther east, gentle to moderate winds and moderate
seas will persist. Looking ahead, expect fresh to strong trade
winds and rough seas north of 10N and west of 130W starting mid
week as high pressure builds north of the region.

$$
KONARIK